TL;DR

US pulls staff as Israel readies Iran strike; Brent crude >$70; Boeing drops after 787 crash.

Highlights

• US pulls non-essential diplomatic and military staff from Middle East; Israel signals readiness for imminent Iran strike; Brent crude tops $7012.
• Iran to open a third uranium enrichment site and upgrade Fordow facility after IAEA censure5.
• Boeing shares drop up to 8% pre-market after Air India 787 Dreamliner crash6.
• US and China agree to ease export curbs, maintain rare earth and student visa truce; Trump administration likely to extend July 8 tariff deadline for nations in “good-faith” trade talks87.
• US Dollar Index falls below 98, lowest close in three years; EUR/USD nears 1.16 amid tariff concerns9.
• UK GDP falls 0.3% in April, worst monthly decline since Oct 2023; Japanese corporate sentiment turns negative10.
• ECB signals pause after latest rate cut; French officials warn on budget deficit and possible fiscal tightening11.
• BioNTech to acquire CureVac for $1.25B in all-stock deal, expanding mRNA oncology pipeline12.
• BlackRock targets $50B crypto AUM by 2030; Ethereum futures open interest hits record $41.66B1516.
• Tether takes 32% stake in Elemental Altus, launches self-custodial wallet kit, signaling push into asset-backed finance18.
• Binance reopens to Syrian users after US sanctions suspension; Ant International to seek stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong and Singapore1713.

Commentary

Geopolitical risk is back in focus as the US withdraws personnel from the Middle East and Israel signals it is prepared to strike Iran, pushing Brent crude above $70 and raising the risk of energy market volatility12. Iran’s announcement of expanded uranium enrichment in response to IAEA censure adds a further layer of uncertainty, with potential implications for defense and energy stocks5. Traders should watch for further developments in the region, as any escalation could impact oil supply and risk sentiment across global markets.

On the trade front, the US and China’s agreement to ease export curbs and maintain a truce on rare earths and student visas offers some relief to supply chains, while the likely extension of the July 8 tariff deadline reduces near-term trade risk for US partners87. However, the US Dollar Index’s drop to a three-year low and a stronger euro reflect ongoing market concerns about tariff policy and a potential shift in global currency flows9. This dollar weakness could support risk assets and commodities in the short term.

Boeing faces renewed pressure after the Air India 787 crash, with shares down sharply pre-market and potential spillover to aerospace peers6. In Europe, weak UK GDP and negative Japanese business sentiment highlight persistent global growth headwinds10, while the ECB’s signal of a pause after its latest rate cut and French deficit warnings point to tighter fiscal and monetary conditions ahead11.

In digital assets, institutional adoption continues to build: BlackRock’s $50B crypto AUM target, record Ethereum futures open interest, and Tether’s investment in gold-backed finance all underscore the sector’s growing relevance151618. Binance reopening in Syria and Ant International’s stablecoin plans further illustrate the global expansion of crypto infrastructure1713.

TL;DR

U.S. pulls staff from Iraq as Iran tensions spike; oil surges 4%; GameStop drops on bitcoin, debt.

Highlights

• U.S. orders non-essential embassy staff out of Iraq and authorizes military family departures in Bahrain and Kuwait amid Iran threats; CENTCOM chief delays Senate testimony due to security concerns17.
• President Trump reiterates Iran will not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons; U.S.–Iran nuclear talks in Oman now unlikely69.
• Iranian GPS jamming over Iraq and cyberattacks on Gulf and Jordanian military/aviation sites attributed to Iran-linked groups8.
• Oil jumps over 4% (Brent near $70) on Middle East tensions and supply disruption fears12.
• GameStop buys 4,710 bitcoin (~$500M) and announces $1.75B zero-coupon convertible notes; shares fall ~10% after hours on dilution risk3.
• Jeffrey Gundlach and Ray Dalio warn of U.S. Treasury debt risks; Gundlach calls for gold and non-dollar assets12.
• U.S. likely to extend July 9 tariff deadline for 18 countries, averting near-term tariff hikes4.
• Saudi Arabia selects Cisco and AMD for domestic AI cloud project; AMD shares reach 13-week high10.
• U.S. LNG exports to Asia rise as Japan’s JERA triples imports; India also expected to increase purchases11.
• Brazil’s Supreme Court secures majority to hold social media platforms liable for illegal content, raising global regulatory risk for tech5.
• U.S. and Canada exchange draft terms for a potential economic-security agreement; talks remain preliminary13.
• U.S. House narrowly passes $9.3B rescissions package, cutting funds for USAID, NPR, and PBS15.

Commentary

Heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East dominated market action, with the U.S. reducing its diplomatic and military footprint in Iraq, Bahrain, and Kuwait following explicit threats from Iran16. The postponement of CENTCOM chief Kurilla’s Senate testimony7 and new reports of Iranian GPS jamming and cyberattacks on regional military and aviation infrastructure8 further underscore the risk of escalation. Oil responded sharply, with Brent and WTI both up over 4% on supply disruption fears12, especially given the vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz. Energy equities such as PHLX Oil Service Sector and related derivatives are likely to remain volatile, while sectors exposed to higher fuel costs could see renewed pressure.

In fixed income, the combination of geopolitical uncertainty and renewed warnings on U.S. fiscal health from Jeffrey Gundlach and Ray Dalio is notable12. While risk-off flows may support Treasuries short term, longer-term concerns about debt sustainability and the dollar’s status are resurfacing. Gundlach’s call for increased gold and non-dollar asset allocations may resonate if safe-haven demand persists, particularly with U.S. liabilities nearing $37 trillion12.

Equities saw sector-specific moves. GameStop’s $500M bitcoin purchase and $1.75B convertible note offering triggered a roughly 10% after-hours drop on dilution worries3, highlighting ongoing volatility in speculative names and crypto-adjacent stocks. Meanwhile, AMD shares extended gains after being tapped for a Saudi AI cloud project, reflecting ongoing momentum in semiconductors and AI infrastructure10. Tech faces a new regulatory headwind from Brazil, where a Supreme Court majority now supports holding platforms liable for illegal user content—a development with potential global implications for big tech5.

Trade and energy flows remain in focus. The likely extension of the U.S. tariff deadline for 18 countries removes a near-term risk to global trade sentiment4. U.S. LNG exporters are positioned to benefit from rising Asian demand, with Japan’s JERA tripling imports and India expected to increase purchases11. Fiscal policy is also in play, as the House passed a $9.3B rescissions package targeting foreign aid and public broadcasting, reflecting the administration’s push for discretionary spending cuts15.

Traders should monitor overnight headlines for further Middle East developments, oil price volatility, and any follow-through in gold , defense, and energy names. Watch for updates on U.S.–Iran negotiations and any additional regulatory moves impacting tech.

TL;DR

US–China trade truce reached; debt ceiling risk persists; Gulf tensions drive safe-haven demand.

Highlights

• U.S. and China reached a provisional trade framework restoring the tariff truce; China pledges upfront rare earth supplies, but U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports set to total 55% pending final approval12.
• China will issue rare-earth export licenses to U.S. firms valid for only six months, maintaining leverage as trade talks continue15.
• U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirmed current China tariffs will remain unchanged; additional trade deals may be announced as early as next week20.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and the CBO warn of a potential debt ceiling crisis if Congress fails to act, with the X-date now estimated between mid-August and September67.
• President Trump called for a 100-basis-point Fed rate cut ahead of next week’s policy meeting, despite CPI data showing inflation rising to 2.4%8.
• Gold has surpassed the euro as the world’s second-largest reserve asset, with central banks’ bullion holdings near all-time highs3.
• U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.6 million barrels, more than forecast; gasoline and distillate stocks built sharply; refinery utilization climbed to 94.3%9.
• U.S. prepares to evacuate embassy staff from Baghdad and authorizes voluntary departures from Bahrain and Kuwait amid heightened Gulf tensions and Iranian threats45.
• Pentagon orders review of the AUKUS submarine pact with UK and Australia, raising the prospect of cancellation and unsettling Indo-Pacific partners17.
• Stripe acquires crypto wallet firm Privy; Bank of America confirms development of a stablecoin, signaling deepening U.S. institutional engagement with digital assets1112.
• Voyager Technologies surges 125% in NYSE debut, raising $383 million and highlighting IPO market strength in defense and space14.
• Apollo and Qatari fund Irth Capital bid to take Papa John’s private at a significant premium; shares halted after a 10% jump13.

Commentary

U.S.–China trade headlines remain central, with a provisional framework restoring the tariff truce but leaving significant friction in place12. The 55% tariff rate on Chinese imports, pending final sign-off, and China’s move to restrict rare-earth export licenses to six months signal ongoing supply chain uncertainty for U.S. manufacturers, especially in technology and EV sectors215. The Commerce Department’s confirmation that tariffs will not be reduced, combined with hints of upcoming trade deals, suggests a transactional approach that may create sector-specific volatility20.

Macro risks persist. The CBO’s revised debt ceiling X-date to mid-August–September provides a slightly longer window, but Treasury Secretary Bessent’s warnings about a 2008-scale crisis if Congress fails to act keep fixed income markets on alert67. Meanwhile, President Trump’s call for a 100-basis-point Fed rate cut, despite CPI rising to 2.4%, increases policy uncertainty ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting8. This could drive swings in rates and the dollar as traders weigh the balance between inflation and political pressure.

Commodities and safe havens are responding to both supply and geopolitical developments. Gold ’s rise as the world’s second-largest reserve asset reflects persistent central bank demand amid uncertainty3. Oil traders are watching U.S. crude draws and refined product builds, but Gulf security risks—highlighted by U.S. embassy drawdowns and maritime warnings—could inject a risk premium if tensions escalate further45.

Equity markets saw notable deal activity, with Papa John’s surging on a buyout bid and Voyager Technologies’ strong NYSE debut underscoring renewed risk appetite in defense and space1314. In digital assets, Stripe’s acquisition of Privy and Bank of America ’s stablecoin confirmation highlight continued institutionalization of crypto infrastructure, which may impact fintech and banking valuations1112.

Into the close, traders should monitor for further headlines on U.S.–China trade details, debt ceiling negotiations, and Middle East developments, as these remain key drivers for sector rotation and risk sentiment.

TL;DR

U.S.-China trade deal advances; gold overtakes euro in reserves; Tesla, Ouster, stablecoins rally.

Highlights

• U.S. and China agree on a trade framework to ease rare earth and magnet restrictions; awaits Trump-Xi approval 110.
• China grants JL Mag Rare-Earth export licenses to U.S., EU, and Southeast Asia ahead of trade talks 14.
• Boeing seeks tariff exemptions for aircraft and parts as U.S.-China negotiations continue 10.
• ECB President Lagarde warns in Beijing that trade protectionism risks a global downturn 11.
• Gold surpasses the euro as the world’s second-largest reserve asset; U.S. dollar’s share of reserves drops to 58% 3.
• U.S. Treasury raises $58B in 3-year notes at 3.972% with slightly weaker demand; 10-year reopening scheduled today 5.
• U.S. mortgage applications jump 12.5% despite 30-year rates rising to 6.93% 5.
• Iran threatens to target U.S. bases if conflict erupts; Russia offers to remove Iran’s surplus nuclear material to support U.S.–Iran talks 49.
• Tesla shares rebound nearly 2% after Musk softens stance on Trump; driverless Model Y seen in Austin, robotaxi launch targeted for June 22 27.
• Ouster jumps 17% pre-market after Pentagon clears its OS1 lidar for military drones 8.
• Stablecoin market tops $250B, driven by Tron inflows and launch of Trump-backed WLFI’s USD1 18.
• Nvidia CEO signals quantum computing nearing real-world use; IBM targets large-scale quantum computer by 2029 15.

Commentary

U.S.-China trade developments headline the session, with both sides reaching a framework to resolve rare earth and magnet restrictions—a key supply chain concern for U.S. tech, autos, and defense 110. China’s approval of JL Mag Rare-Earth export licenses 14 and Boeing ’s push for tariff exemptions 10 suggest incremental progress, though final implementation still hinges on Trump-Xi approval 110. This should provide some relief to industrials and tech stocks exposed to trade friction, but sector-specific risks remain as negotiations continue.

Macro signals are mixed. The ECB’s Lagarde, speaking in Beijing, highlighted the risk that escalating protectionism could undermine global growth 11, echoing market concerns about persistent trade tensions. Meanwhile, central bank reserve data show gold overtaking the euro as the second-largest reserve asset, with the U.S. dollar’s share at a multi-decade low 3. This shift may support gold prices and underscores ongoing diversification away from traditional fiat reserves 3.

In U.S. rates, the Treasury’s 3-year auction saw slightly weaker demand and higher yields, while mortgage applications surged despite rates edging up to 6.93% 5. The upcoming 10-year reopening will be closely watched for further signs of demand and potential implications for yields and rate-sensitive equities 5.

On the corporate front, Tesla shares are rebounding as Musk moves to de-escalate his feud with Trump 2 and the company advances its robotaxi rollout 7, while Ouster’s Pentagon approval boosts its prospects in defense tech 8. In crypto, stablecoin supply has surpassed $250B, supported by Tron inflows and the launch of a new Trump-backed USD1 stablecoin, signaling ongoing institutional and retail interest in digital assets 18.

Geopolitical tensions remain a background risk, with Iran threatening U.S. bases 4 and Russia offering to mediate on Iran’s nuclear material 9. Traders should monitor for any escalation, as well as further trade headlines and Treasury auction results, for near-term market direction.

TL;DR

U.S.-Mexico near steel tariff rollback; Trump to ease climate rules; SEC eyes Solana ETF staking.

Highlights

• U.S. and Mexico near agreement to roll back Trump-era 50% steel tariffs, likely replacing them with a volume-based quota 1.
• Trump administration to roll back power plant CO₂ limits and revoke California’s stricter vehicle emissions rules; legal challenges expected 2.
• SEC considers allowing staking rewards in proposed Solana ETFs; begins review of Nasdaq’s 21Shares Sui ETF 3.
• GameStop (GME ) posts Q1 profit (EPS $0.09) despite 17% sales drop; $500M+ Bitcoin purchase disclosed; cash holdings now $6.4B 74.
• GitLab (GTLB ) beats Q1 estimates but shares fall 12% after hours on cautious forward guidance 8.
• Google offers voluntary buyouts in core Search and Ads division amid AI competition and antitrust pressures 5.
• Microsoft (MSFT ) negotiating deal to add one million Copilot AI users from a single enterprise customer 6.
• Starbucks (SBUX ) to deploy Microsoft (MSFT ) Azure OpenAI assistant in stores to reduce wait times 14.
• U.S. FY2026 defense budget cuts Ukraine military aid, drops $300M Security Assistance Initiative, signaling policy shift 9.
• Trump orders federal agencies and National Guard to intervene in Los Angeles migrant unrest; DOJ probing protest funding 1112.
• OpenAI launches o3-pro model, replacing o1-pro, with improved reasoning and broader enterprise rollout next week 13.
• U.S. urges allies to rescind sanctions on Israeli ministers, highlighting differences with key partners over Israel policy 15.
• Senator Graham to introduce resolution demanding full dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program, with White House and Israeli support 10.

Commentary

Trade, tech, and policy headlines dominated after-hours sentiment. The potential rollback of steep U.S. steel tariffs on Mexico, if confirmed, would ease input costs for U.S. manufacturers and automakers but may pressure domestic steel producers depending on the final quota 1. Any formal announcement could move steel, auto, and materials equities, as well as the Mexican peso.

The Trump administration’s planned reversal of federal and California climate rules is a clear positive for traditional energy and legacy automakers, likely reducing compliance costs in the near term. However, the regulatory uncertainty and expected legal battles could weigh on EV and clean energy stocks, and may create short-term volatility for utilities and auto suppliers exposed to California 2.

Tech sector news was active: GitLab’s (GTLB ) solid Q1 was overshadowed by conservative guidance, triggering a sharp after-hours selloff 8. Google’s voluntary buyouts in core divisions underscore cost discipline as AI competition intensifies 5. Microsoft’s (MSFT ) Copilot expansion 6 and Starbucks’ (SBUX ) AI deployment 14 signal continued enterprise and retail adoption of generative AI, with Microsoft (MSFT ) positioned as a key beneficiary. OpenAI’s o3-pro launch further raises the bar in AI infrastructure, with broader enterprise access next week 13.

In crypto, the SEC’s openness to staking in Solana ETFs and the review of the 21Shares Sui ETF could broaden U.S. access to alternative digital assets, potentially supporting sentiment for SOL, SUI, and related equities 3. GameStop’s (GME ) $500M+ Bitcoin purchase adds digital asset exposure but did not meaningfully move the stock after hours, suggesting traders remain focused on core business performance 47.

On the policy front, the U.S. defense budget’s reduction in Ukraine aid and the federal response to unrest in Los Angeles introduce new macro and geopolitical variables 911. Tensions over Israel policy and Iran remain in the background, but could influence defense and energy names if escalations occur 1015. Watch for further clarity on steel quotas, regulatory pushback in energy and autos, and additional AI adoption headlines for sector rotation cues.

TL;DR

World Bank cuts growth outlook; Fed seen easing in September; Tesla, Smucker tumble on weak outlooks.

Highlights

• World Bank cuts 2025 global growth outlook to 2.3% (from 2.7%), citing U.S. tariffs and trade tensions; U.S. GDP forecast trimmed to 1.4%1.
• Citi and Reuters poll: Fed now expected to start rate cuts in September, totaling 75 bps in 2025; inflation risks tied to tariffs2.
• Alphabet gains 1.5% after OpenAI signs Google Cloud deal for AI compute; Microsoft edges lower4.
• Tesla faces 21% YoY Q2 delivery drop; Wells Fargo sets $120 target (60% downside); J.P. Morgan also bearish7.
• J.M. Smucker drops 13% after Hostess-driven loss and weak 2026 profit outlook; coffee costs and tariffs cited as headwinds8.
• EIA projects first U.S. oil output decline since 2021 in 2026; Gulf of Mexico to drive near-term growth; WTI forecast $62.33/bbl for 20255.
• SEC requests amended filings for spot Solana ETFs, setting up potential approval in 3–5 weeks6.
• House panel advances CLARITY Act for digital asset regulation; Trump CFTC nominee backs crypto clarity18.
• Trump-backed American Bitcoin Corp adds $23M in BTC, plans Nasdaq listing post-Gryphon merger; Trump media arm to raise $2.5B for Bitcoin16.
• Trump invokes Insurrection Act, sends 4,700 troops to Los Angeles amid protests; legal and local opposition mounts12.
• CENTCOM presents Trump with military options against Iran if nuclear talks fail; Houthi missile from Yemen intercepted over Israel910.
• WPP Media cuts 2025 global ad growth forecast to 6%; user-generated platforms to take majority of $1.08T ad spend20.

Commentary

Growth concerns are front and center after the World Bank’s significant downgrade of 2025 global and U.S. GDP forecasts, driven by escalating U.S. tariffs and trade frictions1. The warning of the weakest non-recession growth since 2008, alongside persistent inflation above pre-pandemic levels, sets a cautious tone for risk assets. Markets are now looking to the Fed, with consensus shifting toward a September start for rate cuts and a total of 75 bps in 2025, as policymakers balance growth risks against tariff-driven inflation2.

Equities are seeing pronounced sector divergence. Tech outperformed on news of OpenAI’s cloud deal with Google , boosting Alphabet shares and pressuring Microsoft as OpenAI diversifies away from Azure4. In contrast, consumer and auto names remain pressured: Tesla is under heavy scrutiny with a projected 21% Q2 delivery drop and bearish analyst targets, while J.M. Smucker ’s record single-day decline reflects ongoing demand and margin headwinds, exacerbated by higher input costs and tariff uncertainty78.

Energy markets are digesting the EIA’s forecast for a U.S. oil output decline in 2026, despite near-term growth from the Gulf of Mexico5. Lower demand forecasts and subdued WTI price projections ($62.33/bbl for 2025) may limit upside for energy equities. Geopolitical risks remain elevated with CENTCOM preparing options on Iran and Houthi missile threats, but so far, oil prices remain anchored by fundamentals910.

Crypto and digital asset regulation is in focus. The SEC is expediting spot Solana ETF reviews, and the House is advancing the CLARITY Act, signaling a more defined regulatory path618. Trump-affiliated entities are accumulating Bitcoin and preparing for public listings, further institutionalizing the asset class16. These developments could drive volatility in crypto equities and tokens.

Traders should monitor late-session moves tied to macro data, sector-specific earnings, and regulatory headlines—especially around Fed policy, digital assets, and domestic unrest in Los Angeles12. Defensive positioning and select tech exposure may be favored into the close.

TL;DR

US-China trade talks ongoing; Fed cuts expected; Israel strikes Yemen port, raising Red Sea risk.

Highlights

• US-China trade talks in London continue, described as “fruitful” but with no major breakthroughs; rare earth exports and supply chains remain key topics 56.
• Asian and European equities advance; US and European equity futures edge higher on trade optimism 19.
• Citigroup now expects 75bps in Fed rate cuts in 2025 after weak US payrolls; UK jobless rate rises to 4.6%, with markets pricing in a September BoE cut 16.
• EU prepares 18th Russia sanctions package: lowers Russian oil price cap to $45/bbl, targets shadow fleet, bans Nord Stream use 2.
• Israel launches first naval strikes on Yemen’s Hodeidah port in response to Houthi missile attacks, raising Red Sea shipping risk 1.
• China’s BYD-led EV price war wipes $21.5B in market value; Tesla China sales fall 30% YoY in May; MIIT urges automakers to halt further price cuts 3.
• TSMC May revenue up 39.6% YoY; Quanta, Gigabyte, and ChipMOS also report strong growth on AI chip demand 12.
• Nvidia powers Europe’s fastest supercomputer (JUPITER) and partners with HPE for next-gen Blue Lion system 14.
• US Senate to vote Wednesday on GENIUS stablecoin bill; CFTC nominee Quintenz faces hearing amid crypto regulation debate 89.
• BlackRock, Fidelity, and Bitwise buy $362M in Bitcoin and $47M in Ethereum as US crypto ETFs see $386M net inflows 10.
• Paramount to cut 3.5% of US workforce amid industry TV declines; Skydance merger approval pending 17.
• OpenAI’s ChatGPT experienced a global outage for several hours, now resolved 4.

Commentary

US-China trade negotiations remain in the spotlight, with both sides signaling constructive engagement but no concrete progress 56. The focus on rare earths and supply chain security is particularly relevant for US tech, auto, and defense sectors. While equities in Asia and Europe are higher on hopes of de-escalation, the lack of a breakthrough means US markets will likely remain headline-driven, especially in sectors exposed to supply chain or tariff risk 19.

Expectations for US monetary policy are shifting after soft payrolls data, with Citigroup now forecasting 75bps in Fed cuts for 2025 16. This is supporting risk appetite in equities and weighing on the dollar. In the UK, a rising unemployment rate and slowing wage growth have pulled forward BoE rate cut expectations, pressuring sterling 16. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan maintains a dovish stance, keeping the yen near 145/USD 20.

Geopolitical risk is elevated following Israel’s first naval strike on Yemen’s Hodeidah port, which could disrupt Red Sea shipping and raise energy market volatility 1. The EU’s latest Russia sanctions package, including a lower oil price cap and shadow fleet measures, may further constrain Russian oil flows, although Brent and WTI remain rangebound for now 2.

In tech, TSMC and related AI hardware suppliers continue to report strong revenue growth, reflecting persistent demand for AI chips 12. Nvidia ’s role in powering Europe’s top supercomputers underscores ongoing investment in high-performance computing 14. The China EV price war is pressuring sector valuations and impacting global players like Tesla , while regulatory scrutiny intensifies 3.

Crypto flows remain robust, with significant ETF inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum , and US regulatory momentum building as the Senate prepares to vote on stablecoin legislation 108. Paramount ’s workforce reduction highlights ongoing challenges in traditional media 17, while OpenAI’s resolved outage is a reminder of operational risks in AI-driven businesses 4.

TL;DR

Trump tariffs blocked but remain pending appeal; Bitcoin tops $110K; Disney secures full Hulu ownership.

Highlights

• US courts have blocked Trump’s IEEPA tariffs (10% baseline, 125% on China), but tariffs remain during appeal; litigation could reach the Supreme Court and importers await possible refund guidance 1.
• Bitcoin surged above $110,000, triggering over $200M in short liquidations; ETF inflows and steady Fed expectations cited as drivers 3.
• Senate Majority Leader Thune filed cloture on the GENIUS Act stablecoin bill, with a key procedural vote expected this week; the bill has bipartisan and Trump support 7.
• Disney will pay $438.7M plus $8.61B to acquire NBCUniversal ’s 33% Hulu stake, securing 100% ownership by July 24 4.
• CBO revised the US debt ceiling deadline to mid-August–end September 2025, two weeks later than previous estimates 11.
• President Trump signaled improved relations with Elon Musk, confirming continued White House use of Tesla and Starlink; Tesla shares rose 2.5% 5.
• Apple announced macOS Tahoe will be the last version to support Intel Macs, fully shifting to Apple Silicon from macOS 27 12.
• Paramount Global CFO Naveen Chopra will join Roblox as CFO on June 30; Andrew Warren named interim CFO at Paramount 13.
• Pentagon deploying up to 700 Marines to Los Angeles to reinforce National Guard amid ongoing immigration protests; mission limited to federal asset protection 14.
• US–Iran nuclear talks remain deadlocked; next direct meeting set for June 12, with a sixth round of indirect talks scheduled for June 15 in Muscat, Oman 89.
• Missile launched from Yemen toward Israel failed to reach target; IDF issued evacuation orders for three Houthi-controlled Yemen ports 10.

Commentary

US tariff policy remains a source of uncertainty as courts have blocked the Trump administration’s IEEPA tariffs, but kept them in effect pending appeal 1. Importers continue to pay the tariffs, and the administration is exploring alternative legal authorities to maintain them 1. Ongoing litigation, including multiple lawsuits, could ultimately reach the Supreme Court, keeping trade-sensitive sectors on watch for further developments and potential refund processes 1.

Crypto markets saw significant volatility, with Bitcoin breaking above $110,000 and triggering a wave of short liquidations 3. Strong spot ETF inflows and expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady have supported bullish sentiment 3. The Senate’s movement on the GENIUS Act stablecoin bill, with bipartisan and Trump backing, could provide regulatory clarity and further institutional participation if passed 7.

Macro risk is somewhat reduced by the CBO’s updated debt ceiling estimate, pushing the deadline to late Q3 and easing immediate default concerns 11. In equities, Disney ’s full acquisition of Hulu positions the company for deeper integration in streaming 4, while Apple ’s final phase-out of Intel Macs underscores its shift to Apple Silicon 12. Paramount’s CFO transition 13 and Tesla ’s 2.5% gain on perceived White House détente with Musk are notable corporate moves 5.

Geopolitical risks persist, with US–Iran nuclear talks stalled and further meetings scheduled this week 89. The failed missile launch from Yemen toward Israel and subsequent IDF evacuation orders for Yemen ports highlight ongoing Middle East tensions 10. The Pentagon’s deployment of Marines to Los Angeles is notable domestically but appears contained to asset protection 14.

Traders should monitor tariff litigation, crypto legislation, and debt ceiling headlines for near-term catalysts. Sectors sensitive to trade, crypto, and streaming may see continued volatility.

TL;DR

Apple faces AI delays and tariffs; US doubles metals tariffs; S&P 500 holds near highs.

Highlights

• Apple opens WWDC25 amid AI feature delays, 18% YTD stock drop, weak China iPhone sales, and new 25% US tariffs on iPhones 1.
• Trump administration doubles Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, spiking US aluminum premiums 54% and sharply reducing Mexican, Brazilian, and Canadian exports; EU and Mexico consider retaliation 2.
• US and China hold London trade talks on rare earths and reciprocal tariff reductions; Trump authorizes negotiators to ease some tech export curbs (excluding advanced AI chips) 34.
• NY Fed survey: one-year US inflation expectations drop to 3.2%; improved consumer sentiment and lower recession odds (26%) support S&P 500 near highs; VIX at 17.60, 10-year yield at 4.51% 619.
• Amazon announces $20B investment in Pennsylvania for AI/cloud data centers, creating 1,250 jobs and expanding AWS capacity 5.
• Precious metals rally: silver tops $50/oz in Canada, platinum up 15% to $1,200, palladium breaks resistance; gold steady 710.
• BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF hits $70B AUM in 341 days (fastest ever); MicroStrategy adds 1,045 BTC ; Circle stock up 347% post-IPO 121314.
• United Natural Foods cyberattack disrupts operations at major US grocery distributor, impacting Whole Foods supply chain 11.
• NATO chief urges 5% of GDP defense spending on Russian threat; Israel confirms Patriot missile transfer to Ukraine 89.
• Iran rejects US nuclear deal, demands Israel dismantle arsenal; Trump-Netanyahu call scheduled on response 10.
• OPEC May oil output rises by 150,000 bpd, below pledged hike; crude steady near $65 18.

Commentary

US equities remain resilient into the close, with the S&P 500 holding near record highs 19. Improved inflation expectations from the NY Fed survey and a drop in recession odds to 26% are supporting risk appetite, even as volatility measures like the VIX remain subdued 619. However, rotation within tech is evident: Apple faces ongoing pressure from AI delays, weak China iPhone sales, and new 25% tariffs 1, while Amazon ’s $20B data center investment underscores continued capital flows into AI and cloud infrastructure 5.

The Trump administration’s 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum have sharply increased US aluminum premiums and disrupted North American and EU supply chains, raising the risk of higher input costs for US manufacturers. Mexico and the EU are considering retaliation, while US manufacturers may see margin pressure 2. At the same time, US-China trade talks in London are focused on rare earth supply and reciprocal tariff reductions, with some flexibility on non-AI tech export controls 34. Any progress could ease trade tensions, but the rare earth issue remains unresolved.

Commodities are mixed: precious metals are rallying on technical and geopolitical factors, with silver, platinum, and palladium outperforming, while gold remains steady 710. Oil remains steady as OPEC+ output growth lags pledges 18. In crypto, institutional flows remain strong—BlackRock’s IBIT ETF 12 and Circle’s post-IPO surge 14 highlight robust demand, and MicroStrategy continues to add to its Bitcoin holdings 13.

Supply chain and geopolitical risks remain in focus. The cyberattack on United Natural Foods is disrupting grocery logistics, potentially impacting consumer staples 11. Defense and security headlines are also prominent: NATO is calling for higher defense spending 8, Israel has transferred Patriot missiles to Ukraine 9, and Iran has rejected the latest US nuclear deal proposal, with a Trump-Netanyahu call pending 10.

Traders should watch for further developments from US-China trade talks 34, ongoing fallout from the UNFI cyberattack 11, and late-session moves in metals, crypto, and defense-related names as geopolitical headlines evolve.