TL;DR

Trump floats blanket import tariffs; EU secures 15% U.S. tariff cap; AMD, Nike, S&P 500 targets rise.

Highlights

• Trump proposes a blanket tariff on all U.S. imports; Chile seeks exemption from a 50% copper tariff set for Aug. 1 112.
• U.S. and China hold third round of tariff talks in Stockholm; no breakthroughs yet 2.
• Senate Democrats urge Commerce to maintain AI chip export bans to China amid industry lobbying 5.
• EU pledges $750B in U.S. energy buys and $600B in investment, securing a 15% U.S. tariff cap on most EU goods; skepticism over actual follow-through 313.
• French PM criticizes EU-U.S. tariff deal, but markets rally; STOXX 600 hits four-month high 13.
• OPEC+ keeps oil output policy unchanged; next review scheduled for October 1 6.
• AMD hikes MI350 AI chip price to $25,000; shares hit 52-week high on bullish outlook 7.
• PayPal to let U.S. merchants accept 100+ cryptocurrencies; Interactive Brokers considers launching a stablecoin for 24/7 funding 89.
• MicroStrategy pauses Bitcoin purchases; Cantor raises price target to $680 10.
• JPMorgan upgrades Nike to Overweight, lifts price target to $93; shares rise 4% 11.
• Oppenheimer and Morgan Stanley raise S&P 500 targets (7,100 for 2025, 7,200 by mid-2026) on trade progress and earnings optimism 1718.
• EssilorLuxottica beats sales estimates but warns U.S. tariffs are pressuring profits; supply chain and pricing adjustments underway 19.

Commentary

Trade policy remains a key market driver as Trump’s proposed blanket tariff on all imports 1 and the looming 50% copper tariff create uncertainty for global supply chains and commodity markets. With Chile seeking an exemption 12 and U.S.-China talks ongoing but yielding no progress 2, traders should remain alert for volatility in basic materials, industrials, and related sectors. The Senate push to keep AI chip export bans in place further complicates the outlook for the semiconductor industry 5, even as AMD ’s price hike and strong share performance highlight robust demand for AI hardware 7.

The EU’s headline $750B energy purchase and $600B investment pledge, in exchange for a 15% U.S. tariff cap on most EU goods, has provided near-term relief to equities, despite skepticism about the feasibility of these commitments 313. The STOXX 600 rally and upgrades to S&P 500 targets by Oppenheimer and Morgan Stanley reflect optimism that recent trade agreements may limit further escalation 1718. However, the French government’s criticism and the lack of enforceable details suggest the risk of renewed friction remains 13.

In commodities, OPEC+ holding output steady keeps oil supply expectations unchanged 6, but the copper market faces potential disruption if U.S. tariffs on Chilean copper proceed as planned 12. Companies like EssilorLuxottica are already reporting profit pressure from U.S. tariffs and are moving to diversify supply chains and raise prices 19. Energy and materials names may see increased volatility as policy headlines evolve.

On the fintech and crypto front, PayPal ’s move to enable crypto payments for U.S. merchants 8 and Interactive Brokers ’ stablecoin deliberations point to ongoing digital asset adoption 9. MicroStrategy ’s pause in Bitcoin accumulation hasn’t dampened bullish analyst sentiment, with Cantor raising its price target 10. These developments could support crypto-related equities, especially if regulatory conditions remain favorable.

Into the close, traders should focus on tariff developments, copper and energy price moves, and follow-through in AI, fintech, and consumer names like Nike 11. Headline risk from trade and geopolitics remains high, so position accordingly.

TL;DR

US-EU trade deal lifts equities; US pauses China tech curbs; Samsung-Tesla ink $16.5B chip pact.

Highlights

• US pauses new tech export controls to China, allowing Nvidia to resume AI chip shipments amid ongoing trade talks 1.
• US-EU trade deal imposes a 15% tariff on most EU goods (down from 30% threat); EU to invest ~$600B in US and expand energy/defense purchases 2.
• European equities hit four-month highs on the trade deal; S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures point to new records 2.
• France criticizes the US-EU pact as unbalanced, seeking further concessions, especially on digital services and spirits 6.
• Samsung secures $16.5B chip contract with Tesla for next-gen AI processors, boosting both companies' shares; Texas foundry to benefit 3.
• Trump shortens Ukraine ceasefire ultimatum to Russia, increasing risk of energy sanctions if no progress 4.
• Netanyahu to meet Trump in Washington, aiming to advance Gaza ceasefire and hostage talks; Egypt urges US to press for aid access 5.
• FBI and cybersecurity firms warn of increased airline-targeted cyberattacks by Scattered Spider; recent incidents at Qantas, Hawaiian Airlines, and WestJet 7.
• Tata Consultancy Services to cut 12,000 jobs (2% of workforce) amid client spending delays; shares down ~1% in Mumbai 10.
• GSK licenses Jiangsu Hengrui’s COPD drug for $500M upfront, with potential $12B in milestones; Hengrui shares surge 8.
• MicroStrategy price target raised to $680 by TD Cowen and Cantor Fitzgerald on bitcoin optimism, despite pause in new BTC purchases 11.
• CK Hutchison seeks a major Chinese partner for its $23B global ports sale; China COSCO seen as a candidate 9.

Commentary

US equity markets are set for a strong open, buoyed by the US-EU trade agreement that reduces tariff risk and secures significant European investment into the US 2. The 15% tariff compromise and the EU’s commitment to increase purchases of American energy and defense products provide a clear boost for US industrials, energy, and defense sectors 2. European markets rallied in response, and US futures signal continued strength 2. However, French criticism of the deal and calls for tougher terms—particularly for digital services—suggest further negotiation risk remains in the background 6.

The US freeze on new tech export controls to China is a positive for US semiconductor and AI supply chains, particularly for Nvidia and related names, as it allows blocked shipments to resume 1. This move comes as Samsung lands a major chip contract with Tesla , underscoring ongoing demand for advanced AI hardware and the strategic value of US-based foundries 3. The sector should see renewed attention, but policy risk lingers if US-China talks stall 1.

Geopolitical risk remains a factor. Trump’s shortened ultimatum to Russia on Ukraine raises the prospect of new energy sanctions, which could impact oil and gas markets 4. In the Middle East, Netanyahu’s upcoming meeting with Trump may accelerate Gaza ceasefire efforts, with regional leaders pressing for expanded humanitarian aid 5. Meanwhile, cybersecurity warnings targeting airlines highlight operational risks for travel and infrastructure stocks, following recent incidents at several carriers 7.

Elsewhere, GSK ’s licensing deal for a Chinese COPD drug signals ongoing cross-border pharma activity 8, and MicroStrategy’s raised price targets reflect continued institutional interest in bitcoin exposure 11. TCS’s job cuts point to ongoing margin pressures in global IT services, though direct US impact appears limited 10. CK Hutchison’s port sale negotiations, with China COSCO potentially joining, keep attention on global logistics and regulatory dynamics 9.

Traders should focus on US-EU trade implementation, US-China tech policy headlines, and any escalation in Ukraine or the Middle East. Key sectors to watch include semiconductors, industrials, energy, airlines, and crypto-exposed equities.

TL;DR

US-EU trade deal averts tariff war; US-China truce extension likely; equity speculation at highs.

Highlights

• US and EU reach agreement: 15% US tariff on most EU goods (including autos)1; EU commits to $600B US investment and $750B in US energy purchases4; 50% tariffs on steel/aluminum stay1.
• US and China expected to extend tariff truce by 90 days, maintaining suspension of most bilateral levies; formal announcement likely during Stockholm talks2.
• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick reaffirms Aug. 1 as a hard tariff deadline for non-exempt countries; exemptions still possible for partners negotiating deals3.
• Goldman Sachs flags record speculative activity in US equities, with option and retail trading at highs; S&P 500 put options remain cheap8.
• Boeing faces potential strike at St. Louis defense plants after union rejects 20% pay deal; F-15/F/A-18 production at risk6.
• Ethereum rallies above $3,800 on $8.2B in three-month inflows, led by institutional and ETF demand14.
• Galaxy Digital sells 80,000 Bitcoin (~$9.6B) for early investor; BTC dips 5% but rebounds to ~$117K15.
• Zora token surges nearly 10x in a month after Coinbase Base integration; trading volumes and leverage spike16.
• China proposes global AI governance body as $1B in Nvidia chips reach China despite US export curbs; Huawei debuts new AI hardware5.
• Allianz Life discloses data breach affecting most of its 1.4M customers via third-party CRM hack13.
• Argentina cuts soy and meat export taxes, aiming to boost farm sector and global commodity flows7.
• OpenAI’s Sam Altman becomes Trump’s lead AI adviser, warns banks about AI-driven voice fraud risk1112.

Commentary

The US-EU trade agreement removes the immediate threat of a trans-Atlantic trade war, replacing a potential 30% tariff with a 15% rate on most EU goods1. The EU’s commitments to significant US investment and energy purchases should support US energy and defense sectors4. The deal also provides clarity for US auto and manufacturing equities, though existing high steel and aluminum tariffs persist1. Separately, the US and China are expected to extend their tariff truce by 90 days, keeping most bilateral tariffs suspended and avoiding near-term escalation2. However, the US maintains an Aug. 1 deadline for new tariffs on countries without agreements, so traders should monitor for any last-minute developments or formal confirmations from the Stockholm talks3.

US equity markets are seeing a surge in speculative activity, with Goldman Sachs noting record levels in option and retail trading8. This environment has historically preceded periods of increased volatility. S&P 500 put options remain relatively inexpensive, offering a tactical hedge for traders concerned about a potential pullback8. In the industrial sector, Boeing faces a possible strike at its St. Louis defense plants after workers rejected a 20% pay increase. A walkout would disrupt F-15 and F/A-18 production, adding operational risk to defense names6.

Commodities and currencies are likely to react to Argentina’s permanent cuts to soy and meat export taxes, which could pressure global prices and impact US agricultural exporters7. The US-EU energy deal is a positive for US LNG and oil exporters4. In crypto, Ethereum’s rally above $3,800 is underpinned by strong institutional inflows and ETF demand14, while Bitcoin ’s resilience after a large legacy sale signals ongoing bullish sentiment15. The sharp rise in Zora token highlights continued speculative momentum in altcoins16.

AI and cybersecurity remain in focus. China’s call for a global AI governance body and evidence of US chip export controls being circumvented may intensify regulatory scrutiny on semiconductors, including Nvidia 5. In the US, OpenAI’s Sam Altman has become Trump’s primary AI adviser, signaling ongoing federal engagement with the sector11. Altman’s warnings about AI-driven fraud and the Allianz Life data breach spotlight persistent operational and reputational risks for financials and insurers1213.

TL;DR

Tesla’s robotaxi rollout blocked in California; US-UK trade deal announced; $9B bitcoin sale absorbed.

Highlights

• California regulators blocked Tesla from launching its robotaxi service to the public, restricting operations to employees and invited guests only 1.
• Tesla has not applied for required permits to deploy commercial driverless vehicles in California, stalling its Bay Area rollout 1.
• President Trump announced a completed US-UK bilateral trade agreement; terms have not been disclosed 2.
• Trump will meet EU officials Sunday to discuss a potential US-EU trade deal; outcome uncertain 2.
• Galaxy Digital executed a $9 billion sale of 80,000 bitcoin for a long-term holder, one of the largest such transactions 3.
• Bitcoin fell only 1–3% intraday on the news, trading near $117,000, indicating strong market absorption 3.
• Meta hired OpenAI veteran Shengjia Zhao as chief scientist for its new Superintelligence Labs, focusing on advanced AI models 4.
• Trump criticized European immigration and wind energy policies during his UK visit 5.

Commentary

Tesla ’s planned robotaxi rollout in California has been halted by state regulators, limiting the service to internal use and invited guests 1. The lack of required permits and regulatory pushback introduces further uncertainty for Tesla ’s autonomous vehicle ambitions in a key US market, which may weigh on sentiment for both Tesla and the broader autonomous vehicle sector in upcoming sessions 1.

On the trade front, President Trump’s announcement of a finalized US-UK trade deal is a notable development, but the absence of details limits immediate market impact 2. Attention now shifts to Sunday’s US-EU trade discussions, which could introduce headline risk for USD, GBP, and EUR pairs, as well as for sectors sensitive to transatlantic trade policy 2.

In crypto, Galaxy Digital ’s execution of a $9 billion bitcoin sale for a long-term holder was absorbed with minimal price disruption, underscoring robust liquidity and institutional participation in the market 3. This resilience may support continued institutional interest in digital assets 3.

Meta’s recruitment of Shengjia Zhao, a key AI researcher from OpenAI, highlights the ongoing competition among US tech giants for AI talent and leadership in advanced model development 4. While not an immediate market mover, it signals continued investment and focus on AI innovation among mega-cap tech 4.

TL;DR

Trump signals possible Fed rate cut; major tariff deadlines loom; Intel, Tesla, Charter see sharp moves.

Highlights

• Trump signals possible Fed rate cut after meeting with Powell; Powell says he will serve out his term despite pressure113.
• U.S. durable-goods orders fell 9.3% in June, led by a reversal in aircraft orders; core capital goods slipped 0.7%12.
• Trump says U.S.-China trade deal is close, targeting Aug. 1 for completion; 145% tariffs on Chinese goods remain3.
• U.S.-EU trade talks face Aug. 1 tariff deadline; odds of a deal seen as 50-50; von der Leyen to meet Trump in Scotland215.
• U.S. threatens 35% tariffs on Canadian goods as talks stall; Brazil faces potential 50% U.S. tariff amid diplomatic standoff45.
• Intel to spin off Networking and Edge Group, seeks outside investors; shares down ~9.5%7.
• Tesla to launch paid robotaxi pilot in San Francisco Bay Area this weekend; shares up 1.5% pre-market6.
• Charter Communications stock down 8–10% after Q2 profit miss and broadband subscriber losses9.
• Puma shares plunge nearly 20% after profit warning and guidance cut due to high inventories8.
• Chinese lithium futures spike on supply curbs; U.S.-listed lithium producers rally10.
• Accelerant surges 36% in NYSE debut, continuing strong insurance IPO momentum17.
• Lawmakers urge FDA crackdown on counterfeit GLP-1 drugs; Eli Lilly rises, Hims & Hers falls19.

Commentary

Traders are digesting a complex mix of macro, trade, and sector news into the close. Trump’s public suggestion that Powell may be open to rate cuts, paired with Powell’s insistence on serving out his term, keeps monetary policy in focus—especially as durable-goods data showed a sharp headline drop, though underlying business investment remains only modestly weaker11312. This could reinforce expectations for a more dovish Fed if further economic softness emerges.

Trade policy remains a major driver of risk sentiment. The U.S. is approaching critical Aug. 1 deadlines with the EU (30% tariffs possible), China (deal reportedly close, but 145% tariffs still in place), Canada (35% tariffs threatened), and Brazil (potential 50% tariff)234515. While talks with China appear to be progressing, uncertainty persists with the EU and Canada, and the Brazil situation introduces new volatility for emerging markets and commodity flows. The dollar remains firm, with Trump reiterating support for its strength but acknowledging export headwinds16.

Equity markets are seeing sharp stock-specific moves. Intel shares dropped nearly 10% on news of a networking unit spin-off, reflecting investor caution on restructuring7. Tesla rose modestly on plans to launch a robotaxi pilot in the Bay Area, though regulatory hurdles remain6. Charter and Puma both saw steep declines after disappointing earnings and guidance, highlighting continued market sensitivity to execution risk98. Meanwhile, lithium names are rallying on Chinese supply concerns, and Accelerant’s strong IPO debut signals ongoing demand for insurance sector exposure1017.

In healthcare, lawmakers’ push for FDA action on counterfeit GLP-1 drugs is benefiting Eli Lilly , while Hims & Hers fell on enforcement risk19. Commodity and FX markets are also reacting to global policy shifts, with the Brazilian real under pressure on tariff threats and Chinese lithium prices supporting U.S. miners510.

Traders should remain alert to late-session headlines on trade negotiations and any Fed commentary, as these could drive volatility into the close.

TL;DR

Intel warns on advanced chips; Bitcoin drops on Galaxy outflows; Volkswagen, Puma cut guidance on U.S. tariffs.

Highlights

• Intel signals possible exit from advanced chipmaking, cutting 22% of workforce and canceling planned facilities; Q3 outlook disappoints, shares fall 4.5% after Q2 results.1
• Nvidia AI chips worth $1B smuggled into China since April, fueling an illicit repair market; U.S. lawmakers seek stricter GPU tracking.4
• Tesla to launch paid robotaxi rides in San Francisco this weekend with safety drivers; lacks full regulatory approval for driverless ops.3
• Bitcoin drops 3% to $115,000 as Galaxy Digital moves over $1.2B BTC to exchanges; Ether down 4%.513 Fidelity’s Ethereum ETF posts record $210M inflow, driving $231M in daily ETH ETF flows.12
• Volkswagen cuts 2025 profit and revenue guidance after €1.3B U.S. tariff hit and weak Q2 earnings; U.S. deliveries down nearly 10%.620
• Puma shares plunge up to 20% after warning of a 2025 loss, citing weak demand, high inventories, and new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.11
• Bank of Japan may signal a more upbeat outlook at next week’s meeting after U.S.-Japan trade accord, opening path for a second rate hike in 2025.2
• ECB’s Kazaks signals no urgency for further rate cuts, maintaining a wait-and-see stance.7
• U.S. consumer sentiment and Trump’s economic approval rise, but new tax and tariff laws remain unpopular.17
• South Korea pushes to finalize a U.S. trade deal before August 1, focusing on tariffs and critical sectors like semiconductors.15

Commentary

Semiconductors remain in focus as Intel ’s restructuring and warning of a potential exit from advanced chipmaking highlight ongoing challenges for U.S. tech manufacturing.1 The cutbacks and weak outlook could weigh on U.S. chip sector sentiment, especially as Nvidia ’s AI chips continue to reach China via illicit channels, underscoring the limits of export controls and the persistent global demand for high-end hardware.4 Congressional efforts to tighten post-sale tracking may increase regulatory scrutiny for U.S. chipmakers.4

In equities, U.S.-listed semiconductor and auto suppliers could see pressure following Intel ’s and Volkswagen ’s guidance cuts.16 Volkswagen ’s results show the impact of U.S. tariffs on global automakers, with North American sales notably weak.6 Puma’s steep profit warning, also tied to U.S. tariffs and sluggish demand, adds to concerns about the outlook for consumer discretionary names exposed to global trade.11

Crypto markets saw heavy flows overnight. Bitcoin ’s 3% drop was triggered by large-scale transfers from Galaxy Digital to exchanges, stoking speculation of active selling, though liquidity has so far absorbed the move.513 In contrast, Ethereum saw record ETF inflows—driven by Fidelity—which may help stabilize ETH despite broader crypto weakness.12 NFT-related activity is also supporting ETH-linked sentiment.19

Macro policy remains a driver. The U.S.-Japan trade accord is clearing the way for the Bank of Japan to consider another rate hike, which could support the yen and impact global rates.2 The ECB is in wait-and-see mode, keeping EUR/USD in a holding pattern.7 U.S. consumer sentiment is improving, but political risks around tariffs and tax policy persist as the election cycle intensifies.17 South Korea’s push to finalize a U.S. trade deal before August 1 could bring further headlines for sectors like semiconductors.15

Traders should watch for continued volatility in semis, autos, and crypto, as well as updates from central banks and trade talks that could shift cross-asset sentiment ahead of the weekend.

TL;DR

Trump presses Fed for big cuts; Intel slashes jobs, guides up; France to recognize Palestine.

Highlights

• Trump visited the Fed, publicly pressed Powell for 300bps in rate cuts, and criticized renovation costs, intensifying scrutiny of Fed independence ahead of next week’s FOMC1.
• Intel will cut 15% of its workforce (~11,000 jobs), halt planned chip expansions in Germany and Poland, and reported a $2.9B Q2 net loss; Q3 guidance topped expectations, sending shares higher after hours14.
• France will recognize Palestinian statehood at the UN in September, the first G7 member to do so; Israel condemned the move, and the UK and Germany are now under diplomatic pressure3.
• SpaceX ’s Starlink suffered a 2.5-hour global outage impacting millions globally, including recent T-Mobile satellite messaging customers; service has been restored4.
• The FCC approved the $8B Paramount-Skydance merger, with Skydance taking control of CBS and Paramount assets after agreeing to DEI and bias oversight concessions5.
• DOJ sued New York City and Mayor Adams over sanctuary city policies, escalating federal-local tensions on immigration enforcement6.
• Newmont beat Q2 estimates, reporting $5.32B revenue, record $1.7B free cash flow, and authorized a $3B share buyback7.
• IMF staff cleared Argentina’s first program review, unlocking $2B in funding despite missed reserve targets8.
• Google secured a $1.2B, five-year cloud contract with ServiceNow, strengthening its enterprise cloud business9.
• Trump to sign an executive order directing cities to clear homeless encampments, tying federal funding to compliance10.
• NASA and SpaceX scheduled Crew-11 ISS launch for July 3112.

Commentary

Trump’s rare visit to the Fed and public call for aggressive rate cuts puts additional political pressure on Powell and the FOMC just ahead of their policy meeting1. This could prompt increased market sensitivity to any Fed communication or leaks, with potential for volatility in Treasuries and the dollar if the Fed signals pushback or policy flexibility.

Intel ’s deep cost cuts, European project cancellations, and weak Q2 earnings highlight ongoing margin and competitive pressures in the semiconductor sector14. Despite the negative headline numbers, the company’s better-than-expected Q3 guidance drove a positive after-hours reaction. Investors should watch for spillover effects on US tech peers and global chip supply chain sentiment, especially with Intel consolidating operations in Asia.

France’s move to recognize Palestinian statehood introduces a new geopolitical variable for markets, particularly as it may influence broader G7 and EU policy3. While immediate market impact is limited, traders should monitor for any escalation in Middle East tensions that could affect risk sentiment, energy prices, or safe havens like gold—especially with Newmont’s strong quarter underscoring sector resilience7.

The FCC’s greenlight for the Paramount-Skydance merger removes regulatory uncertainty and sets up a new competitive landscape in US media and streaming5. Meanwhile, the DOJ’s lawsuit against New York City and Trump’s executive order on homelessness signal a more assertive federal approach to urban and immigration policy, which could impact municipal bonds and city funding610.

Elsewhere, the Starlink outage is a reminder of infrastructure risks as reliance on satellite connectivity grows, though service was restored quickly4. Google ’s cloud win and upcoming NASA/SpaceX missions round out a session marked by heavy headlines across sectors912. Traders should remain alert for further Fed signals, chip sector developments, and any geopolitical headlines into the next session.

TL;DR

US jobless claims fall; IBM, Tesla, Sarepta plunge on earnings/news; Chevron resumes Venezuela oil output.

Highlights

• US initial jobless claims fell to 217,000, the lowest since April, but continuing claims remain elevated at 1.955 million, near 2021 highs117.
• Trump administration restored Chevron ’s license to pump oil in Venezuela, with proceeds shielded from Maduro’s government3.
• IBM shares dropped 10% after Q2 software revenue missed estimates, erasing much of its YTD gains and weighing on Dow futures4.
• Tesla shares fell 8.6% on weak revenue and ongoing tariff and tax incentive headwinds; Trump softened stance on Musk firms but scrutiny remains2.
• Microsoft CEO Nadella defended recent layoffs and outlined an $80 billion AI infrastructure investment, signaling further organizational changes5.
• Chinese lithium carbonate futures surged 8% on a three-month production halt; US lithium stocks hit five-month highs11.
• BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF (ETHA) surpassed $10 billion AUM, with Ethereum spot ETF inflows outpacing Bitcoin for five days9.
• Sarepta shares plunged 19% after FDA required new safety studies for its gene therapy, raising cash flow concerns6.
• ECB paused rate cuts after seven reductions, holding deposit rate at 2% and warning of external risks8.
• Nvidia AI chips worth over $1 billion have been smuggled into China despite US export controls, highlighting enforcement gaps7.
• Valero beat Q2 estimates on strong refining margins, though net income declined year-over-year16.
• Intel set to report Q2 results after close, with expectations for minimal profit amid ongoing turnaround efforts15.

Commentary

Labor market data continues to show a nuanced picture: initial claims are falling, indicating limited new layoffs, but elevated continuing claims suggest re-employment is taking longer117. This dynamic may keep the Fed cautious ahead of next week’s meeting, with markets likely to trade sideways on mixed economic signals.

In energy, the Trump administration’s decision to allow Chevron to resume Venezuelan oil production is aimed at boosting global supply without benefiting the Maduro regime3. This, combined with strong refining margins at Valero 16, may pressure crude prices and support US refiners. Meanwhile, lithium markets are reacting sharply to Chinese production halts, with US lithium stocks rallying on anticipated supply constraints11.

Tech remains volatile. IBM ’s software miss triggered a sharp selloff, dragging on the Dow 417 and raising questions about software demand in legacy tech. Microsoft ’s $80 billion AI investment and continued restructuring signal that capital is still flowing aggressively into AI infrastructure5, while Tesla ’s revenue miss and tariff headwinds continue to weigh on sentiment in EVs2. The smuggling of Nvidia chips into China underscores persistent challenges in enforcing US tech export controls and may keep semiconductor geopolitics in focus7.

In crypto, BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF is drawing significant inflows and outpacing Bitcoin products, highlighting shifting institutional interest9. Sarepta ’s sharp decline after an FDA setback underscores ongoing regulatory risk in biotech6. The ECB’s rate pause and lack of forward guidance keep the euro in play, with global rate differentials and trade tensions still a risk for US multinationals8. Intel ’s post-close results will be closely watched for further read-throughs on chip sector demand15.

TL;DR

Trump pressures Fed for rate cuts, threatens broad tariffs; Tesla warns post-EV credit; U.S. chip, lithium, and bank stocks in focus.

Highlights

• Trump to visit the Federal Reserve today, increasing pressure on Chair Powell for rate cuts; 10-year Treasury yields steady at 4.39%, dollar slightly weaker 1.
• Trump threatens 15–50% tariffs on countries without U.S. trade deals by Aug. 1; only a few nations, including Japan and the UK, have agreements 2.
• U.S.–South Korea trade talks delayed as Seoul seeks to avoid 25% tariffs; South Korea considers $100B U.S. investment and shipbuilding partnership to secure tariff relief 718.
• Nvidia AI chips worth $1B reached China via intermediaries despite U.S. export restrictions, raising enforcement concerns 3.
• Tesla warns of “rough quarters” as U.S. EV tax credit ends; Q2 revenue down 12% y/y, stock down 7% pre-market 4.
• China’s lithium futures hit 5-month highs on supply rumors; U.S. lithium stocks rally pre-market 5.
• U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index jumps to 15.9, signaling a rebound; Empire State index also surprised to upside 13.
• Eurozone flash PMI rises to 51.0, highest in 11 months; ECB expected to hold rates, signals possible cut in September 11.
• European banks (Deutsche Bank , BNP Paribas, Sabadell) report strong Q2 earnings, lifting sector shares 8.
• SK Hynix posts record Q2 sales; Hyundai warns of intensifying U.S. tariff impact despite strong U.S. sales 14.
• Novartis beats Q2, raises outlook, announces $10B buyback; TotalEnergies profit down 23% y/y but maintains $2B quarterly buybacks 109.
• China-EU summit ends without trade breakthrough; joint climate statement signed as trade tensions persist 616.

Commentary

Markets open with a focus on U.S. policy risk as President Trump’s visit to the Fed highlights ongoing political pressure for rate cuts 1. While the visit is officially for a facility inspection, recent public criticism of Powell and threats to replace him underscore the risk of further politicization of monetary policy 1. Treasury yields and the dollar are little changed, but traders will be alert for any signals ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting 1.

Trade tensions remain elevated. Trump’s proposed 15–50% tariffs on countries lacking U.S. trade deals by August 1 put major exporters at risk, especially as talks with South Korea are delayed 27. Seoul is weighing a $100B U.S. investment and shipbuilding partnership to avoid a 25% tariff, but uncertainty remains 18. Hyundai’s Q2 results already show a $602M hit from tariffs, and the company expects further pressure in the second half 14. Meanwhile, Nvidia ’s $1B in AI chip shipments to China, despite export controls, could prompt tighter enforcement and scrutiny on U.S. suppliers 3.

In sector news, Tesla ’s warning of “rough quarters” following the loss of the U.S. EV tax credit and declining Q2 revenue is weighing on the stock and the broader EV sector 4. However, U.S. lithium producers are rallying as Chinese lithium futures surge on supply concerns 5. Strong Q2 results from European banks are supporting global financials, while Novartis ’ buyback and raised outlook provide a boost to healthcare 10. TotalEnergies ’ profit decline reflects weaker energy prices, but buybacks remain intact 9.

Macro data is mixed but supportive for risk: U.S. manufacturing sentiment is improving, with the Philly Fed index at a five-month high and the Empire State index also positive 13. Eurozone PMIs show services-led recovery, though manufacturing remains weak 11. The ECB is expected to hold rates but may signal a cut in September 11. The China-EU summit produced no progress on trade, but a joint climate statement highlights shifting global alliances as the U.S. steps back from climate leadership 616.