TL;DR

US-EU/Canada/Brazil tariff risks rise; BRICS to curb dollar use; record Ethereum ETF inflows.

Highlights

• China says BRICS will soon introduce measures to reduce dollar reliance in trade and finance; details pending 1.
• US finalizes trade pact with UK, but EU talks stall with 30% US tariff threat for August 1; Canada faces possible 35% US tariff, Brazil 50% 465.
• Japan disputes US claim to 90% of profits in $550B trade pact, raising uncertainty for related deals 7.
• Argentina cuts export taxes on soy, grains, and meat, aiming to boost competitiveness; cuts called permanent 9.
• Chinese lithium futures hit five-month highs after NDRC reviews pricing rules, lifting global lithium stocks 10.
• Intel may exit advanced chip manufacturing if it cannot secure major 14A node customers; restructuring and possible Apple partnership underway 13.
• China proposes global AI governance body as $1B in Nvidia chips reach China despite US curbs; Huawei unveils new high-performance AI system 14.
• Galaxy Digital handles $9B Bitcoin sale with limited market impact 15; US spot Ethereum ETFs attract $2.4B in net inflows, outpacing Bitcoin 16.
• Moody’s upgrades Turkey to Ba3 on improved policy credibility; Fitch raises Hess to AA, maintains Serbia and Saudi ratings 17.
• Russian Central Bank cuts key rate by 200bps to 18% as inflation hits 4%, but recession risks persist 11.
• Puma shares drop nearly 20% after profit warning and sales downgrade, citing high inventories 18.
• Israel opens humanitarian corridors and resumes Gaza aid airdrops under pressure; full aid access remains limited 2.

Commentary

Trade policy remains a central risk for global markets. The US-UK trade deal provides some clarity for cross-Atlantic flows 4, but unresolved negotiations with the EU, Canada, and Brazil mean significant tariff hikes could take effect as soon as August 1 465. This uncertainty is likely to weigh on equities in autos, agriculture, and manufacturing, particularly for firms exposed to transatlantic and North American supply chains. Japan’s dispute over profit allocation in its US trade pact adds further complexity for cross-border investment planning 7.

Emerging market news is mixed. Argentina’s permanent export tax cuts should support its agricultural sector and may pressure global soy and meat prices 9. Turkey’s credit upgrade reflects improved monetary policy 17, while Russia’s aggressive rate cut highlights ongoing economic stress despite inflation progress 11. The BRICS announcement on reducing dollar reliance is notable, but the lack of specifics limits immediate market impact 1; traders should watch for concrete steps.

In commodities and tech, Chinese lithium futures rallied on expectations of tighter domestic controls, supporting global lithium equities 10. Intel ’s warning about its advanced chip business underscores ongoing challenges in the semiconductor sector, with restructuring and possible partnerships signaling industry shifts 13. China’s push for global AI governance and evidence of continued Nvidia chip flows despite US export controls highlight ongoing tech competition and supply chain workarounds 14.

Crypto markets remain resilient, with a $9B Bitcoin sale absorbed smoothly 15 and Ethereum ETFs seeing record inflows, signaling robust institutional demand and potential rotation in digital asset leadership 16. In equities, Puma’s sharp decline on weak guidance may prompt broader scrutiny of consumer discretionary names 18. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East and humanitarian efforts in Gaza remain on watch, but direct market impact is limited unless the situation escalates 2.

TL;DR

France to recognize Palestine; Russia bans gasoline exports; ECB pauses cuts; VW, Puma warn on tariffs.

Highlights

• France will recognize the State of Palestine at the UN in September, the first G7 nation to do so; UK and Germany to discuss coordinated action as Gaza cease-fire talks stall1.
• Israel and the US pulled negotiating teams from Doha after Hamas’s latest cease-fire proposal, citing lack of progress; humanitarian and security concerns persist2.
• Russia to ban most gasoline exports in August–September to cap domestic prices; export volumes to key buyers like Egypt and Turkey will be affected3.
• Chevron resumes Venezuelan oil production with US approval, adding 200,000 barrels/day to US supply; no royalties or taxes to Maduro’s regime4.
• ECB pauses rate cuts, keeps deposit rate at 2% citing inflation near target but flags external risks, especially trade disputes and euro strength5.
• Bank of Russia cuts policy rate by 200 bps to 18% as inflation cools, but maintains cautious outlook6.
• US and Japan to launch a $550B sovereign wealth fund for US assets with 90% profit share to the US; Trump to oversee investments7.
• India and UK sign FTA, expected to boost annual trade by £25.5B, with phased tariff cuts on autos and alcohol8.
• Volkswagen cuts 2025 outlook after €1.3B US tariff hit; Puma warns of 2025 loss, shares fall 20%, both citing weak demand and tariff impacts1011.
• Intel to cut 15% of staff, cancels German/Polish fabs after $1.9B restructuring charge; future expansion tied to demand9.
• China offers to increase EU imports if tech export curbs are eased; Shanghai AI conference draws 800 firms despite US chip sanctions1216.
• Bitcoin drops to $115,000 on Galaxy Digital outflows; Ethereum ETFs reach $16.6B AUM as institutional flows shift1819.

Commentary

Geopolitics and trade remain front and center for global markets. France’s planned recognition of Palestine1, combined with the breakdown in Gaza cease-fire talks2, adds complexity to Middle East risk calculations. While direct market impact is limited for now, energy markets remain sensitive to escalation or supply disruptions in the region. The withdrawal of US and Israeli teams from Doha further reduces near-term prospects for de-escalation2.

On the commodity front, Russia’s gasoline export ban for August–September is likely to tighten refined product markets, particularly in countries reliant on Russian supply such as Egypt and Turkey3. However, the resumption of Chevron ’s Venezuelan oil production—without financial benefit to the Maduro regime—should help offset some supply concerns for US refiners4. Watch for volatility in oil and gasoline prices as traders assess the net effect of these moves.

Central banks are signaling a more cautious approach. The ECB paused after seven consecutive rate cuts, citing inflation near target but highlighting risks from trade disputes and euro appreciation5. The Bank of Russia’s 200 bps rate cut reflects easing inflation but policymakers remain wary of renewed price pressures6. Meanwhile, the US-Japan $550B sovereign wealth fund agreement removes a key uncertainty for the Bank of Japan, potentially supporting further rate hikes if growth and inflation hold up717.

Trade tensions and tariffs are weighing on corporate outlooks. Volkswagen and Puma both downgraded guidance, citing US tariffs and weak demand1011, while Intel ’s restructuring and fab cancellations underscore a shift to more disciplined capital allocation amid uncertain demand9. The India-UK FTA is a rare positive, with significant tariff reductions expected to boost bilateral trade, particularly in autos and alcohol8.

In digital assets, Bitcoin fell on large Galaxy Digital wallet outflows18, while Ethereum ETFs continue to attract institutional inflows, pushing AUM to $16.6B19. The rotation from Bitcoin to Ether is notable and could drive further volatility in crypto markets. China’s offer to expand EU imports if tech curbs are lifted12, and its large AI conference despite US sanctions16, signal continued tech sector maneuvering.

TL;DR

U.S. nears 15% tariff deals with EU/Japan; SK Hynix, Nikkei, S&P 500 hit records; China lithium surges.

Highlights

• Trump threatens 15–50% tariffs on countries without U.S. trade deals by Aug. 1; only a few countries have secured agreements so far 1.
• U.S. and EU near a 15% tariff deal with exemptions for aircraft, spirits, and medical devices; European auto tariffs to be cut 2.
• Trump announces $550B Japan trade pact, lowering auto tariffs and prompting record highs in Nikkei and S&P 500 3.
• ECB holds deposit rate at 2%, pausing its easing cycle as trade uncertainty persists; markets still price in one more cut 7.
• EU prepares €93B in retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods if no deal is reached; measures could start as soon as Aug. 7 8.
• U.S. to lift Nvidia H20 export curbs in exchange for Chinese rare-earth magnets; $1B in Nvidia chips reportedly circumvented U.S. export restrictions to China 45.
• SK Hynix posts record profit on AI memory demand; South Korea’s Q2 GDP beats forecasts on strong semiconductor exports 1317.
• China’s lithium futures hit five-month highs on rumors of production suspensions and draft price law tightening 11.
• Honda delays hydrogen plant; Fortescue cancels green hydrogen projects, reflecting weaker global hydrogen demand and high costs 12.
• Tether plans U.S. re-entry as new stablecoin law takes effect, targeting institutional payments 15.
• Thailand-Cambodia border clashes escalate, causing evacuations and diplomatic downgrades; regional risk rises 9.
• China-EU summit ends without breakthroughs amid trade deficit, EV subsidy, and rare-earth tensions 6.

Commentary

Trade policy remains the primary market driver as the U.S. sets an Aug. 1 deadline for new tariffs on nations without bilateral deals 1. The U.S.-Japan agreement and progress with the EU have eased some market concerns, with equity indices in Japan, Europe, and the U.S. rallying on expectations of lower tariffs than initially feared 23. However, the risk of last-minute breakdowns or escalation persists, with the EU preparing significant retaliatory measures 8 and the ECB pausing its easing cycle to assess the fallout 7.

In Asia, strong semiconductor demand is supporting both corporate earnings and macro data. SK Hynix’s record profit and South Korea’s better-than-expected Q2 GDP highlight the sector’s momentum 1317, though ongoing U.S.-China tech tensions—evidenced by both the chips-for-magnets swap and reports of Nvidia chips reaching China despite curbs—keep supply chain risks elevated 45. Meanwhile, China’s lithium futures surged on supply rumors and draft regulatory changes, reinforcing commodity price volatility 11.

The energy transition narrative is under pressure as Honda delays its hydrogen plant and Fortescue cancels projects, reflecting persistent cost and demand challenges for green hydrogen 12. This suggests continued reliance on traditional energy sources in the near term.

Crypto markets may see increased institutional activity as Tether prepares to re-enter the U.S. under new regulatory clarity 15. Regional risk is also in focus with escalating Thailand-Cambodia border tensions 9 and a lack of progress in China-EU trade talks 6, both of which could affect sentiment in EM and regional assets.

TL;DR

U.S.-Japan 15% tariff deal lifts Nikkei; ADB cuts Asia growth; gold, Bitcoin hit records on trade risks.

Highlights

• U.S. and Japan agree to a 15% reciprocal tariff (down from 25%), boosting Nikkei and Japanese automakers1.
• U.S. finalizes 19% tariffs on Indonesian and Philippine exports, with broad U.S. market access in return1112.
• European auto stocks rally 4.2% on hopes for similar U.S.-EU tariff reductions14.
• Asian Development Bank cuts 2025 developing Asia growth forecast to 4.7% on U.S. tariffs and China property weakness3.
• Japan PM Ishiba expected to resign by end of August; Japan’s 40-year bond auction sees weakest demand since 2011213.
• China and U.S. set July 27–30 trade talks in Sweden to address tariffs and market access4.
• gold rises above $3,415/oz and Bitcoin tops $120,000 as haven demand increases amid trade tensions and lower yields89.
• Amazon and McKinsey scale back China AI operations; AWS closes Shanghai AI lab, following IBM and Microsoft moves618.
• Chinese hackers exploit Microsoft SharePoint flaw, breaching U.S. agencies and firms; Microsoft faces renewed security scrutiny5.
• Mexico plans $7–10 billion sovereign bond sale to support Pemex, lifting Pemex bonds7.
• Apple set to win EU approval for App Store fee overhaul; UK regulator proposes “strategic market status” for Apple and Google 1516.
• Vale beats Q2 iron ore output forecast, but sales lag and prices soften; nickel and copper output rise19.

Commentary

Traders are focused on a series of U.S.-driven bilateral trade deals ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline. The U.S.-Japan agreement, with a lower-than-expected 15% tariff, triggered a sharp rally in Japanese equities and automakers, and fueled optimism in European auto stocks that similar tariff relief may be forthcoming114. The U.S. also secured new trade terms with Indonesia and the Philippines, locking in 19% tariffs but gaining substantial market access for U.S. goods1112. These deals are part of a broader U.S. effort to reset trade terms across Asia, but the Asian Development Bank’s growth downgrade signals that persistent tariffs and China’s property market weakness continue to weigh on regional prospects3.

Japanese political uncertainty is back in focus, with PM Ishiba reportedly preparing to resign and the 40-year bond auction drawing the weakest demand in over a decade. This has implications for Japanese government bond yields and may add volatility to JGBs and the yen, especially as fiscal and leadership questions mount213.

Safe-haven flows remain pronounced. gold and Bitcoin are both near record highs, supported by trade friction, lower Treasury yields, and a cautious Fed outlook89. The U.S. 10-year yield has fallen to a two-week low, and traders will be watching next week’s Fed meeting and the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks in Sweden for further direction48.

Tech and cybersecurity risks are increasingly relevant. U.S. tech and consulting firms are reducing China AI exposure, with AWS shuttering its Shanghai lab and McKinsey restricting AI work, reflecting deepening U.S.-China tech decoupling618. Separately, a major Microsoft SharePoint vulnerability exploited by Chinese hackers has heightened scrutiny of software supply chains and may impact sentiment toward U.S. tech names5.

In commodities, Vale ’s iron ore production exceeded forecasts, but weaker sales and prices highlight soft global steel demand19. Mexico’s planned sovereign bond sale to support Pemex has been well received, easing near-term default risk for the state oil company7. Meanwhile, Apple is set to clear a key regulatory hurdle in the EU, but faces new scrutiny in the UK as regulators move to tighten oversight of digital platforms1516.

TL;DR

Ukraine-Russia talks set; UK sanctions Russian energy; BOJ resumes USD liquidity; gold, ETH rally.

Highlights

• Ukraine and Russia to hold first direct peace talks in seven weeks on July 23 in Turkey; focus on prisoner swaps and cease-fire groundwork, but Moscow's participation is not yet confirmed1.
• UK imposes 137 new sanctions on Russian energy, targeting 135 oil tankers and key trading firms; EU adds sanctions on Iranian oil traders and Russian diesel, with new diesel restrictions effective January 20262.
• Putin transfers authority for foreign ship approvals at Russian ports to the FSB, tightening maritime controls amid recent tanker incidents and sanctions pressure4.
• Bank of Japan to resume U.S. dollar liquidity operations from July 24, launching 800 billion yen in securities lending to address domestic liquidity shortages5.
• India and UK set to sign a major tariff-cutting trade pact next week, reducing duties on whisky and cars, and expanding market access for textiles and EVs6.
• Trump threatens 35% tariffs on Canadian exports from August 1; Canada and U.S. senators discuss CUSMA renegotiation as deadline approaches7.
• China’s coking coal futures surge nearly 8% on regulatory mine shutdowns; CSI 300 index hits year high, broad gains in metals and silicon8.
• Gold nears $3,400/oz and silver tops $39/oz, with strong ETF inflows and mining stocks rallying9.
• SEC Chair states Ether is not a security; Ethereum ETFs see $2.18B weekly inflows, ETH trades near $3,8001420.
• JPMorgan considers direct Bitcoin - and Ethereum -backed loans, reflecting increased institutional engagement with crypto collateral15.
• BYD delays Hungary EV plant to 2026, shifts production focus to Turkey for tariff-free EU access11.
• RBA minutes show split over rate cuts; further easing possible but contingent on upcoming inflation and labor data19.

Commentary

Geopolitics continues to drive market risk, with Ukraine-Russia peace talks scheduled in Turkey but little clarity on Moscow’s participation1. The UK’s latest sanctions on Russian energy logistics—targeting both shadow fleet tankers and major trading entities—add to the pressure on Russian export revenues2. The EU’s new measures against Iranian oil traders and upcoming Russian diesel restrictions further complicate global energy flows2, while Putin’s move to place the FSB in charge of foreign ship approvals signals tighter Russian maritime controls4. These developments are likely to keep energy and shipping markets volatile, with potential knock-on effects for European and global commodity prices.

Central bank actions remain in focus. The Bank of Japan’s renewed U.S. dollar liquidity operations and securities lending underscore ongoing funding strains in Japan, with possible implications for USD/JPY and regional liquidity5. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes reveal a divided board, with further rate cuts on the table but dependent on upcoming inflation and labor data19. The Australian dollar remains sensitive to both domestic policy signals and external trade risks, especially as U.S. trade policy uncertainty persists19.

Trade policy shifts are front and center. The India-UK FTA, expected to be signed next week, will lower barriers for autos, spirits, and textiles, supporting supply chain diversification and sector-specific equities6. In North America, Trump’s tariff threats against Canadian exports and the scramble to renegotiate CUSMA introduce headline risk for CAD , Canadian exporters, and North American equities7. BYD’s pivot from Hungary to Turkey for EV production highlights how automakers are adjusting to evolving tariff regimes and cost structures to maintain EU market access11.

Commodities and crypto see continued momentum. China’s regulatory clampdown on overproduction has triggered sharp rallies in coking coal, silicon, and metals, boosting related equities and the CSI 300 index8. Gold and silver are near multi-year highs, benefiting from safe-haven flows and ETF demand9. In crypto, the SEC’s clarification that Ether is not a security has removed a major regulatory overhang, fueling record ETF inflows and institutional adoption1420. JPMorgan ’s exploration of crypto-backed loans signals further mainstreaming of digital assets, with potential implications for credit markets and crypto valuations15.

Traders should monitor developments from the Ukraine-Russia talks1, evolving sanctions and trade negotiations27, and central bank liquidity actions519. Expect continued volatility in commodities, energy, and crypto, with macro data and policy headlines driving cross-asset moves.

TL;DR

U.S. tariff deadline pressures Asia and EU; Japan political turmoil lifts yen; China boosts commodities.

Highlights

• South Korea and Japan intensify talks with Washington to avert 25% U.S. tariffs on exports by August 1 1.
• EU weighs broader countermeasures against U.S. tariffs, but prioritizes a negotiated settlement 3.
• Japanese ruling coalition loses upper house control; yen strengthens on political uncertainty 4.
• Stellantis warns of €2.3B H1 net loss, citing U.S. tariffs and weaker North America shipments; withdraws guidance 5.
• China launches $167B Yarlung Zangbo hydropower project, driving commodity futures and steel/iron ore prices higher 6.
• China condemns new EU sanctions on its banks over Russia, threatens retaliation; China-EU summit set for July 24 211.
• Russian precious metal exports to China surge 80% to $1B in H1, driven by gold rally and redirected trade 12.
• Ryanair posts record €820M Q1 profit on strong demand; warns Boeing deliveries could be paused if U.S. tariffs imposed 19.
• ECB survey shows euro-area firms trim 1-year inflation view to 2.5%, with trade frictions cited as a drag 20.
• Ethereum rallies to $3,800; Dynamix SPAC to create $1.5B Ether Machine with planned Nasdaq listing 1617.
• OpenAI targets 1M+ GPUs by year-end; London Stock Exchange considers 24-hour trading 1813.

Commentary

Trade policy remains the dominant risk for global markets as the U.S. tariff deadline approaches for Japanese and South Korean exports. Both countries are stepping up diplomatic efforts 1, but the lack of U.S. signals increases the risk of higher levies disrupting Asian supply chains and manufacturing. The EU is preparing possible countermeasures 3 but is still seeking a negotiated outcome, while euro-area corporates are already reporting weaker sentiment and inflation expectations due to ongoing trade frictions 20.

Japan’s political landscape adds further uncertainty after the ruling coalition lost upper house control, strengthening the yen and raising the risk of legislative gridlock 4. This weakens Tokyo’s hand in tariff talks and could delay fiscal or monetary responses, with potential spillovers into Japanese equities and rates markets. Meanwhile, Stellantis ’ steep loss and guidance withdrawal highlight the direct earnings impact of tariffs and supply-chain disruptions, especially for global automakers 5.

In commodities, China’s launch of the massive Yarlung Zangbo hydropower project has lifted steel and iron ore prices to multi-month highs, reflecting expectations for increased infrastructure demand 6. Russian precious metal exports to China have surged as Moscow redirects flows away from Western markets, supported by a strong gold rally 12. China’s threat of retaliation over EU sanctions 2 and the upcoming China-EU summit 11 add to the risk of further commercial friction.

On the corporate and tech front, Ryanair ’s record profit underscores robust travel demand but also flags potential aircraft delivery risks if U.S. tariffs extend to aviation 19. In digital assets, Ethereum ’s rally 17 and the planned Ether Machine SPAC listing 16 signal growing institutional participation, while OpenAI’s GPU expansion 18 and LSE’s 24-hour trading review 13 reflect the ongoing shift toward AI and continuous market access.

TL;DR

U.S.-EU tariff tensions escalate; ECB holds rates; UK/EU cut Russian oil cap; Chevron closes $53B Hess deal.

Highlights

• EU prepares retaliatory tariffs after U.S. signals 30% import duties on broad imports, escalating trade tensions1.
• ECB to keep rates unchanged at July meeting, citing need for more data amid weaker euro-area exports2.
• China trims U.S. Treasury holdings to $756.3B, lowest since 2009, even as overall foreign inflows rise5.
• UK and EU lower Russian oil price cap to $47.60/bbl, seeking to cut Moscow’s revenue; G7 urged to align3.
• Chevron finalizes $53B Hess acquisition, securing Guyana Stabroek Block stake after arbitration win over Exxon 8.
• Trump signs GENIUS Act, establishing first U.S. stablecoin regulations; Bitcoin briefly nears $120,0007.
• Nvidia’s China AI chip sales restart is stalled by TSMC capacity constraints despite eased U.S. export curbs6.
• China pledges crackdown on strategic mineral smuggling11; rare-earth magnet exports to U.S. surge 660% in June post-truce18.
• Japan’s ruling coalition risks losing upper house majority; PM Ishiba’s approval at record low, raising policy uncertainty14.
• Iran and European powers agree to resume nuclear talks, potentially impacting oil market sentiment17.
• UK considers $7B sale of seized Bitcoin to address budget gap, raising questions on government crypto liquidations9.
• Hong Kong issues T10 storm signal as Typhoon Wipha disrupts over 500 flights and regional logistics12.

Commentary

Trade and policy risks remain front and center for global markets. The U.S. move toward 30% import tariffs and the EU’s immediate preparations for retaliation signal a further deterioration in trans-Atlantic trade relations1, with potential spillovers for global supply chains and export-driven equities. The ECB’s decision to hold rates steady, despite trade headwinds and slowing exports, underscores its limited policy flexibility and may keep the euro under pressure, especially as the dollar remains supported by resilient foreign inflows into U.S. Treasuries—even as China continues to reduce its holdings25.

In commodities, the UK and EU’s coordinated move to lower the Russian oil price cap tightens pressure on Moscow’s revenues and could reshape flows if G7 partners follow suit3. Chevron ’s completion of its Hess acquisition secures a major growth asset in Guyana, positioning the company for higher output and cost synergies8, while Iran’s agreement to resume nuclear talks with Europe introduces a new variable for oil market risk premia17.

China’s internal and external policy maneuvers remain critical for supply chains and tech. The crackdown on strategic mineral smuggling11, coupled with a sharp jump in rare-earth magnet exports to the U.S. after a trade truce18, highlights the ongoing volatility and politicization of critical resource flows. Meanwhile, Nvidia ’s China AI chip business remains supply-constrained due to TSMC capacity, limiting near-term upside despite U.S. export license relief6.

In digital assets, the U.S. GENIUS Act provides the first federal framework for stablecoins, boosting sentiment in crypto markets and supporting a brief rally in Bitcoin 7. The UK’s consideration of a $7B Bitcoin liquidation to address fiscal gaps introduces a new angle for government-driven crypto supply, which could become a trend if other states follow suit9. Weather events such as Typhoon Wipha’s disruption in Hong Kong add further short-term risk for logistics and regional equities12.

Key watch points for traders: U.S.-EU tariff escalation1, ECB policy signals2, Japanese political developments14, oil market moves linked to Russia and Iran317, and regulatory or liquidation-driven volatility in crypto markets79.

TL;DR

US targets Russian oil buyers, hikes tariffs on Chinese graphite; yields surge; Chevron-Hess deal cleared.

Highlights

• White House to impose secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil, increasing compliance risks for global crude trade 1.
• US Commerce hikes anti-dumping duties on Chinese graphite to 160%, pressuring EV supply chains and boosting North American graphite stocks 3.
• China quietly issues 2025 rare-earth quotas, tightens export controls, and alleges foreign plots to circumvent restrictions 213.
• Petrobras may reroute crude exports to Asia after US imposes 50% tariff on Brazilian goods; Brazil prepares formal response 2014.
• Iraq and Kurdistan agree to resume northern oil exports, but restart awaits final agreements amid ongoing security risks 4.
• US 30-year Treasury yield tops 5% for first time since 2007; UK 30-year gilt yield hits 1998 high, reflecting fiscal and supply concerns 8.
• Chevron cleared to acquire Hess ’s Guyana assets after arbitration ruling; Chevron and Hess shares rally 12.
• Congress passes first federal stablecoin bill, awaits Trump’s signature; law to provide regulatory clarity for stablecoins 11.
• BlackRock seeks SEC approval to add staking to $7B Ethereum ETF, potentially offering yield to investors 10.
• China’s Commerce Minister meets Nvidia CEO as US allows H20 chip sales; US lawmakers press Commerce on export controls 517.
• EU proposes €2 trillion budget with major defense and Ukraine funding; Germany opposes, setting up difficult negotiations 9.
• Bank of Japan softens near-term tariff impact outlook but maintains caution ahead of July policy review; inflation forecast may rise 18.

Commentary

Energy and critical minerals remain in focus as the US moves to impose secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil, raising compliance hurdles for refiners and traders globally, particularly in Asia 1. Meanwhile, the US ramps up tariffs on Chinese graphite, a key input for EV batteries, intensifying supply chain pressures for automakers and battery producers 3. North American graphite producers saw gains, while automakers flagged higher costs 3. China’s opaque rare-earth quota issuance and new export controls, combined with allegations of foreign attempts to bypass restrictions, signal further tightening in strategic minerals—key for technology and defense sectors 213.

Fixed income markets saw renewed volatility as the US 30-year Treasury yield broke above 5% for the first time since 2007, and UK gilts hit multi-decade highs 8. The moves reflect strong economic data and increased fiscal supply concerns, with potential spillover into equity valuations and emerging market assets 8. Despite higher yields, foreign demand for Treasuries remains robust, led by Canadian inflows 8.

In commodities, Chevron ’s acquisition of Hess ’s Guyana assets is now cleared, granting access to a major oil resource and driving share gains for both firms 12. In contrast, the resumption of Iraqi Kurdistan oil exports remains delayed, with security and contractual uncertainties persisting 4. The US’s 50% tariff on Brazilian goods is prompting Petrobras to redirect oil flows to Asia, potentially shifting regional crude price dynamics 20. Brazil is weighing reciprocal measures, adding to trade friction 14.

On the regulatory front, Congress’s passage of the first federal stablecoin bill and BlackRock ’s move to add staking to its Ethereum ETF mark further integration of digital assets into mainstream finance 1110. Approval of staking could attract yield-seeking investors and intensify competition among asset managers 10. In tech, Nvidia ’s renewed chip sales to China highlight ongoing US-China tensions, with US lawmakers scrutinizing export control enforcement 517.

Traders should monitor further developments in US-Russia and US-China trade actions, sovereign yield movements, and regulatory shifts in digital assets. The BOJ’s July review and EU budget negotiations are key upcoming catalysts 189.

TL;DR

Israel-Syria cease-fire set; US, Canada ramp tariffs; TSMC profit jumps on AI demand.

Highlights

• Israel struck Syrian military targets in Damascus, but a US-brokered cease-fire with Syria is set to begin tonight 12.
• Russia’s Medvedev warned of “full-scale war” with the West; major Russian banks are considering potential state bailouts due to rising bad loans 35.
• The European Commission proposed a €2 trillion 2028–2034 budget, including €100 billion for Ukraine, facing resistance from some EU members 4.
• The US will impose a 50% tariff on all Brazilian exports; Brazil protested and exporters have paused shipments 6.
• Canada imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and tightened import quotas, aiming to protect its domestic industry 7.
• US national-security concerns have delayed a multi-billion-dollar Nvidia AI chip sale to the UAE; the FCC plans to bar Chinese tech from US subsea cables 89.
• TSMC posted a 61% YoY profit jump on AI demand and raised its 2025 outlook; Samsung’s Jay Y. Lee was acquitted in a key merger case 1514.
• BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF surpassed $80 billion in assets; US spot Ethereum ETFs saw record inflows; Tether minted $2 billion USDT, pushing supply above $160 billion 1617.
• The US House advanced major crypto bills, including a federal stablecoin framework, moving closer to comprehensive digital asset regulation 20.
• Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, prompting a sharp AUD drop and solidifying expectations for an August RBA rate cut 19.
• Drone strikes hit a Hunt Oil field in Iraqi Kurdistan, raising concerns about regional energy infrastructure security 12.
• Eni signed a $15 billion, 20-year US LNG supply deal, expanding Europe’s reliance on US gas 18.

Commentary

Geopolitical risk remains elevated. Israel’s strike on Damascus and the subsequent US-brokered cease-fire highlight ongoing instability in the Middle East 12. While immediate escalation may be contained, persistent drone attacks on Iraqi oil infrastructure 12 and the ICC’s continued pursuit of Israeli leaders 11 keep regional risks in focus. Energy traders should monitor Brent and regional crude benchmarks for renewed volatility.

Russia’s increasingly confrontational rhetoric 3, paired with signs of stress in its banking sector 5, adds to market uncertainty. The prospect of state bailouts for major Russian lenders could impact Russian financial assets and sovereign risk pricing. Meanwhile, the EU’s proposed €2 trillion budget—especially the €100 billion Ukraine allocation—signals continued fiscal expansion but faces internal resistance, which could affect eurozone yields and policy expectations 4.

Trade tensions are intensifying. The US’s sweeping 50% tariff on Brazilian exports 6 and Canada’s new steel tariffs targeting Chinese supply 7 are likely to disrupt supply chains, pressure industrial equities, and add volatility to commodity-linked currencies such as BRL . The delayed Nvidia chip sale to the UAE 8 and new US restrictions on Chinese tech in subsea cables 9 reflect ongoing US-China tech decoupling, which may influence global tech supply chains and sector sentiment.

On the tech front, TSMC ’s strong results and Samsung’s cleared legal overhang support the ongoing AI-driven semiconductor rally 1514, though management flagged FX and tariff risks. In digital assets, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF and surging stablecoin issuance 1617 point to sustained institutional demand, while US legislative progress could further legitimize the sector 20.

Macro data showed Australia’s labor market softening, with a higher jobless rate pushing the AUD lower and solidifying expectations for RBA easing in August 19. This could influence regional risk appetite and rates markets. Traders should stay alert to developments in trade policy, central bank signals, and geopolitical flashpoints as cross-asset volatility persists.