TL;DR
U.S.–China trade deal with 55% tariffs, Middle East tensions lift oil, China tightens rare earth controls.
Highlights
- Trump announces U.S.–China trade deal with 55% tariffs on Chinese imports (pending Xi’s approval)1; China to supply rare earths and impose 10% tariffs on U.S. goods1.
- China restricts rare-earth export licenses to six months for U.S. buyers4; secures new rare earth mines in Myanmar, now supplying half of China’s imports18.
- Oil jumps over 4% to two-month highs (Brent $69.77, WTI $68.15) on Middle East escalation risks and U.S. embassy evacuations7.
- Israel reportedly weighing unilateral strike on Iran2; Iran to open third enrichment site and upgrade Fordow centrifuges after IAEA censure3.
- U.S. raises alert at Mideast diplomatic and military posts6; UK issues rare shipping warning for Gulf, Oman, and Hormuz16.
- Boeing shares drop up to 8% after Air India 787 Dreamliner crash17.
- UK GDP falls 0.3% in April, worst monthly decline since Oct 2023; Japanese business sentiment turns negative8.
- EU proposes sanctions on two Chinese banks for aiding Russia’s trade, expanding pressure on China’s financial sector5.
- U.S. Treasury signals likely extension of July 9 reciprocal tariff deadline for 18 partners, including Japan20.
- Ant International to seek stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong and Singapore, lifting Alibaba-linked stocks15.
- World Bank lifts ban on nuclear power funding for first time since 1959; may finance reactor upgrades and small modular reactors in developing countries12.
- JERA signs 20-year deal to triple U.S. LNG imports to Japan; Shell plans up to 12 million tons new LNG capacity by 203011.
Commentary
Trade and geopolitical risks remain in sharp focus. The U.S.–China trade deal, if finalized, signals a more entrenched tariff regime (55% on Chinese imports)1, but with rare earth supply guarantees and limited reciprocal tariffs from Beijing1. China’s move to restrict rare-earth export licenses to six months4 and its control over Myanmar’s rare earth output18 reinforce its leverage over global supply chains, especially for U.S. tech and EV sectors. The U.S. Treasury’s likely extension of the reciprocal tariff deadline for key partners, including Japan, offers some relief to global trade flows20, but uncertainty persists.
Escalating Middle East tensions are driving a risk premium in energy markets. Oil prices surged to two-month highs as Israel considers a potential unilateral strike on Iran2 and Iran responds to IAEA censure by expanding enrichment capacity3. The U.S. has raised alert levels at diplomatic and military sites6, and the UK has issued a rare warning for shipping in the Gulf and Hormuz16, underscoring the risk of supply disruptions. LNG markets are also in focus with Japan’s JERA securing long-term U.S. supply and Shell expanding capacity, highlighting ongoing efforts to diversify energy sources11.
Equities are mixed. Boeing faces renewed pressure after the Air India 787 crash17, while Alibaba-linked stocks rallied on Ant International’s stablecoin licensing plans in Asia15. European and Asian economic data remain soft, with UK GDP contracting and Japanese business sentiment deteriorating amid trade uncertainty and higher costs8. The EU’s proposed sanctions on Chinese banks for aiding Russia could further strain China-Europe financial relations5.
Fixed income may see safe-haven flows as traders weigh geopolitical escalation and slower growth in major economies. The World Bank’s decision to lift its nuclear funding ban signals potential for long-term infrastructure investment, but immediate market impact is limited12.
Traders should monitor developments in U.S.–China trade policy, Middle East security, and rare earth supply chains, as well as sector-specific moves in energy, tech, and defense.