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TL;DR

CFTC opens U.S. access to offshore exchanges; $3.5B stablecoin mint; Ethereum ETF assets top $30B.

Highlights

• CFTC clarified Foreign Board of Trade (FBOT) rules, enabling offshore crypto exchanges to serve U.S. users under CFTC oversight, potentially restoring access to Binance , Bybit, and OKX 1.
• Tether and Circle minted over $3.5B in stablecoins in one day, with new supply deployed across Ethereum, Solana, and DeFi protocols 2.
• Tether will issue USDT natively on Bitcoin via the RGB protocol, aiming for private, scalable stablecoin transfers directly on Bitcoin 3.
• U.S. Commerce Department published GDP data on nine public blockchains, including Bitcoin , Ethereum , and Solana , in a first-of-its-kind on-chain federal data release 4.
• Ethereum ETF assets surpassed $30B, with BlackRock leading inflows; Ether ETF demand outpaced Bitcoin products in recent sessions 5.
• Solana validators are voting on the Alpenglow upgrade to cut block finality to 150ms; new validator clients matched record throughput, and SOL outperformed major assets 17.
• DeFi Development Corp. increased Solana holdings by 29% to 1.83M SOL and launched the UK’s first publicly traded Solana treasury vehicle 11.
• Arbitrum will adopt zero-knowledge proofs via a Succinct Labs partnership, aiming to reduce withdrawal times and enhance security 8.
• Robinhood listed Toncoin (TON ) for U.S. users, expanding access to Telegram’s Web3 ecosystem ahead of Coinbase 7.
• WLFI, a Trump-backed token, will list on major exchanges Sept. 1; American Bitcoin, backed by Trump family, prepares for Nasdaq debut 9.
• Stablecoin payments surged in Latin America, with global stablecoin volume reaching $5T in 2024, driven by institutional adoption and regulatory clarity 20.
• NASDAQ-listed Caliber launched a Chainlink ($LINK) treasury strategy and saw its stock rise 56.5% pre-market 12.

Commentary

Regulatory clarity is in focus as the CFTC’s FBOT guidance opens the door for major offshore exchanges to re-enter the U.S. market under direct oversight, likely improving liquidity and reducing friction for both retail and institutional traders 1. This move could restore access to platforms like Binance and OKX, which had previously exited the U.S. following enforcement actions 1.

Stablecoin activity remains a key market driver. Tether and Circle’s $3.5B+ in new issuance, much of it flowing into DeFi protocols and exchanges, signals renewed demand for dollar liquidity across blockchains 2. Tether’s decision to issue USDT natively on Bitcoin via RGB further expands stablecoin infrastructure and may attract new users seeking privacy and scalability 3. Meanwhile, stablecoin payments are accelerating in Latin America and globally, now rivaling traditional payment networks in volume, supported by clearer U.S. rules and significant VC investment in the sector 2015.

On-chain adoption by institutions and governments is accelerating. The Commerce Department’s GDP data release on nine blockchains demonstrates growing federal engagement with crypto infrastructure 4. Ethereum continues to see strong institutional flows, with ETF assets above $30B and BlackRock leading recent inflows, while Ether ETF demand outpaces Bitcoin 5. Solana ’s technical upgrades—including the Alpenglow vote and validator client performance—have driven SOL outperformance and increased institutional accumulation, as seen with DeFi Development Corp.’s expanded holdings and new UK vehicle 1711.

Layer-2 and altcoin developments remain active. Arbitrum ’s shift to zero-knowledge proofs reflects the broader trend among Ethereum scaling solutions to improve efficiency and security 8. Robinhood ’s listing of Toncoin (TON ) and the upcoming WLFI token launch point to expanding retail and political engagement 79. Caliber’s Chainlink treasury move signals growing corporate adoption of digital asset management strategies 12.

Traders should watch for liquidity changes as U.S. access to offshore exchanges resumes 1, monitor stablecoin flows for risk sentiment 220, and track upgrade timelines on Ethereum and Solana for momentum trades 517. Political token listings and ETF approvals may act as near-term catalysts 914.

TL;DR

Novo Nordisk inks $550M Replicate deal; Reliance plans Jio IPO, AI push; Microsoft launches in-house AI.

Highlights

• Novo Nordisk signs a $550M licensing deal with Replicate Bioscience for self-replicating RNA obesity drugs, expanding beyond GLP-1 therapies 1.
• PepsiCo invests $585M in Celsius Holdings, increasing its stake to 11% to strengthen distribution and marketing 2.
• Reliance Industries plans a 2026 IPO for Jio Platforms and launches an AI subsidiary, announcing AI partnerships with Google Cloud and Meta 3.
• Alibaba develops a new AI chip with a mainland Chinese foundry to reduce reliance on Nvidia amid U.S. export controls 4.
• U.S. revokes chip equipment waivers for Intel, Samsung, and SK Hynix in China, introducing new export license requirements and potential supply chain risks 5.
• Meta licenses Midjourney’s AI image/video technology to enhance consumer and ad products across its platforms 6.
• Affirm shares surge 22% after reporting 33% revenue growth and strong FY26 guidance, offsetting concerns over Walmart’s exit 7.
• Trump-backed WLFI token to launch on major crypto exchanges; American Bitcoin to debut on Nasdaq via Gryphon merger 8.
• IREN secures Nvidia preferred-partner status and financing to expand its AI cloud fleet to 10,900 GPUs, diversifying beyond crypto mining 9.
• Offchain Labs (Arbitrum) partners with Succinct Labs to implement zero-knowledge proofs, aiming for faster withdrawals and improved security for Ethereum Layer-2 10.
• 21Shares files for a U.S. ETF tracking Sei Network’s SEI token, including a staking option, as altcoin ETF filings rise 11.
• Microsoft unveils in-house AI models (MAI-Voice-1 and MAI-1-preview) to reduce reliance on OpenAI and strengthen its AI stack 14.
• Pop Mart’s Labubu collectibles sell out instantly worldwide, driving 204% revenue growth and a 250% YTD share price increase 13.
• DeFi Development Corp. buys $77M in Solana, launches UK Solana treasury vehicle, and plans further international expansion 15.
• Elon Musk moves to dismiss SEC lawsuit over delayed Twitter stake disclosure 12.

Commentary

Strategic partnerships and vertical integration are prominent this cycle, with large corporates targeting emerging tech to secure future growth. Novo Nordisk’s $550M deal with Replicate Bioscience signals sustained appetite for platform biotech, particularly as pharma incumbents seek to diversify pipelines amid export headwinds 1. For VCs, this highlights continued M&A and licensing as primary exit paths in therapeutics and platform biotech.

AI remains a central theme. Microsoft ’s launch of proprietary models and Alibaba ’s new domestic AI chip both reflect efforts to reduce third-party dependencies—on OpenAI and U.S. chip suppliers, respectively 144. Reliance Industries’s new AI subsidiary and partnerships with Google and Meta signal that hyperscale cloud and AI infrastructure are expanding rapidly in India, creating new demand for AI tools and data centers 3. Early-stage AI hardware, model development, and cloud infrastructure startups should see increased investor attention as corporates seek to localize and differentiate.

In fintech and consumer, Affirm ’s strong quarter and Pop Mart ’s global collectibles boom show that resilient consumer demand and brand-driven business models continue to attract capital and deliver growth 713. PepsiCo ’s increased investment in Celsius further illustrates the value of strategic distribution partnerships in crowded consumer categories 2.

Crypto and digital assets are seeing both institutional and political engagement. The Trump-backed WLFI token and American Bitcoin’s Nasdaq debut highlight a shift toward mainstream acceptance and regulatory engagement, while developments like Arbitrum ’s ZK upgrade and 21Shares’ ETF filing point to infrastructure maturation and new public market vehicles 81011.

Geopolitical and regulatory risks remain top of mind, with the U.S. tightening chip export rules and Alibaba moving to localize critical tech 54. These moves may impact cross-border deal flow and valuations in hardware and semiconductor startups. Investors should monitor regulatory shifts, strategic M&A, and the pace of infrastructure buildout as signals for deal activity and exit timing.

TL;DR

US tightens China chip controls, GDP beats at 3.3%, Fed cut odds boost gold to record highs.

Highlights

• US revokes export waivers for Intel , Samsung, and SK Hynix’s China chip plants; 120-day transition before new license requirements12.
• Section 301 tariff exclusions on 178 Chinese import categories extended to Nov. 29, 20252.
• US Q2 GDP revised up to 3.3% annualized, beating expectations; Canadian GDP contracts 1.6% on US tariffs313.
• US core PCE inflation at 2.9% YoY in July, matching forecasts but above Fed’s 2% target4.
• Fed funds futures imply 87% probability of a September rate cut5.
• Gold trades near record highs above $3,500/oz as rate-cut expectations rise6.
• Affirm shares surge up to 22% on strong Q4 results and positive FY26 guidance7.
• BYD shares fall over 7% after Q2 profit drops 30% amid China EV price war8.
• PepsiCo invests $585M in Celsius, raising stake to 11%; Celsius shares up 7.6% pre-market14.
• CDC faces leadership upheaval and staff walkouts after director’s ouster9.
• Turkey halts all trade with Israel and closes airspace to Israeli planes10.

Commentary

US markets are processing a mix of macro, policy, and corporate news into the close. The revocation of chip equipment export waivers for Intel , Samsung, and SK Hynix’s China plants tightens US controls on advanced semiconductor technology, increasing supply chain uncertainty for global chipmakers with China exposure12. However, the extension of tariff exclusions on a broad set of Chinese imports signals a measured approach, balancing inflation concerns with ongoing tech restrictions2. Semis and related supply chain names may see added volatility as these changes take effect over the coming months.

On the macro front, US Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.3% annualized, reflecting resilient consumer and business spending3. This stands in sharp contrast to Canada’s 1.6% contraction, largely driven by new US tariffs on key Canadian exports313. Meanwhile, July core PCE inflation came in at 2.9%—still above the Fed’s target but in line with expectations4. Despite sticky inflation, futures markets are now pricing in an 87% chance of a Fed rate cut in September5, which is supporting gold near record highs and providing a tailwind for rate-sensitive equities6.

In corporate action, Affirm’s strong quarter and upbeat guidance are driving a sharp rally in fintech7, while PepsiCo’s $585M investment to lift its Celsius stake highlights ongoing M&A and partnership momentum in beverages14. BYD’s profit miss and share drop serve as a caution for global EV exposure to China’s margin pressures8. The CDC’s leadership crisis and staff walkouts introduce a new risk for US public health infrastructure, though immediate market impact appears limited9.

Geopolitical risk is elevated as Turkey halts all trade with Israel and closes its airspace, adding a new layer of uncertainty for regional markets and potentially for energy flows if tensions escalate further10.

TL;DR

Nvidia faces China export hurdles; Microsoft, OpenAI launch rival voice models; Anthropic shifts to default user data training.

Highlights

• Nvidia is negotiating with the White House for export approval of Blackwell GPUs to China; only downgraded versions may be allowed due to U.S. national security rules, with $2–5B in potential upside if restrictions ease 1.
• Nvidia has removed all H20 chip sales to China from its Q3 forecast due to lack of orders and ongoing export controls; China’s AI compute market is estimated at $50B 101.
• Alibaba introduced a new AI inference chip compatible with Nvidia ’s software, aiming to reduce reliance on U.S. semiconductors; Nvidia shares fell 1.2% on the news 4.
• Microsoft launched its first in-house AI models—MAI-Voice-1 (high-efficiency speech generation) and MAI-1-preview (text MoE foundation model)—to power Copilot and reduce dependence on OpenAI 3.
• OpenAI released the gpt-realtime voice model and made its Realtime API generally available, cutting prices by 20% and improving latency and instruction-following; Microsoft’s competing voice model launched the same day 2.
• Anthropic will use user chats for AI training by default and extend data retention to five years unless users opt out by September 28, affecting all consumer tiers 5.
• Meta licensed Midjourney’s image/video generation technology to enhance AI-driven features across Instagram, WhatsApp, and ad tools 7.
• xAI launched Grok Code Fast 1, a coding LLM with 1/10th the cost of GPT-4, now free on major coding platforms; a multimodal version is in development 6.
• Dell raised its annual revenue outlook to $105–109B on strong AI server sales ($20B projected for FY26); HP and Marvell posted mixed hardware results, reflecting supply chain divergence 8.
• Intel received a $5.7B cash infusion from the U.S. government in exchange for a 10% equity stake, with a further 5% warrant tied to foundry ownership retention 9.
• IREN secured Nvidia preferred-partner status and financing for a 10,900-GPU AI cloud expansion, targeting $200–250M in annualized AI cloud revenue 11.
• South Korea proposed an 8.1% budget increase to $524B for 2026, prioritizing AI R&D and economic growth 12.
• UK court filings show the government sought bulk interception and global access to encrypted Apple iCloud data, raising privacy concerns for cloud AI providers 14.
• Madrona released its 2025 IA40 list, highlighting 40 top AI startups and five infrastructure enablers 15.

Commentary

AI hardware supply chains remain in flux, with Nvidia ’s China strategy in the spotlight. The company’s negotiations with the White House for Blackwell GPU exports underscore the significance of the Chinese AI compute market, but U.S. export controls continue to cap near-term upside 110. Alibaba ’s new inference chip, designed for compatibility with Nvidia ’s software, signals steady progress in China’s domestic hardware ecosystem, intensifying competition and prompting investor caution 4.

On the model and platform front, Microsoft ’s in-house MAI models and OpenAI’s gpt-realtime release—both emphasizing speech and multimodal capabilities—reflect a shift toward vertical integration and cost optimization 32. The simultaneous launches and pricing moves will pressure developers and enterprises to reassess their AI stack choices, while Meta’s Midjourney partnership and xAI’s low-cost Grok Code Fast 1 highlight ongoing efforts to differentiate through ecosystem partnerships and specialized model offerings 76.

Data governance is becoming more complex. Anthropic’s move to default user data retention and training, unless opted out, may accelerate model improvement but also raises the risk of regulatory scrutiny, especially as governments like the UK seek broader access to cloud user data 514. AI professionals should monitor evolving user consent frameworks and privacy standards, particularly as enterprise and consumer AI adoption scales.

AI infrastructure demand remains robust, as seen in Dell ’s raised outlook and IREN’s aggressive GPU cloud expansion 811. However, volatility among component suppliers like Marvell suggests uneven near-term visibility across the hardware stack. Policy and investment signals are strong: Intel ’s government stake and South Korea’s AI-focused budget reinforce the trend of state-backed support for strategic technology sectors 912, while Madrona’s IA40 points to sustained venture interest in both applications and infrastructure 15.

TL;DR

Packers land Parsons in $188M deal; Champions League draw sets marquee ties; Schwarber belts four HRs.

Highlights

• Packers acquire Micah Parsons from Cowboys for Kenny Clark and two first-round picks; Parsons signs four-year, $188M extension, making him the NFL’s highest-paid non-QB1.
• BetMGM cuts Packers’ Super Bowl odds to 13-1 post-trade; Cowboys’ odds drift to 60-11.
• Champions League draw: PSG faces Bayern and Barcelona; Real Madrid gets Liverpool and Man City; group phase schedule out Aug. 302.
• Newcastle agrees £65M deal for Stuttgart striker Nick Woltemade; Liverpool may revisit Alexander Isak after earlier £110M bid was rejected6.
• Chelsea agrees £40M transfer for Man United winger Alejandro Garnacho; Tottenham and Chelsea both negotiating for RB Leipzig’s Xavi Simons78.
• Dolphins expect Tyreek Hill to play Week 1; RB Jaylen Wright out, De’Von Achane expected back, TE Darren Waller set for opener5.
• Kyle Schwarber hits four home runs, nine RBIs as Phillies rout Braves; Schwarber leads NL with 49 homers4.
• Messi says Argentina’s Sept. 4 qualifier vs. Venezuela will be his last home game for the national team3.
• Fenerbahce and Besiktas fire Mourinho and Solskjaer after European exits; both clubs seeking new managers9.
• England manager Tuchel drops Alexander-Arnold, calls up Elliot Anderson and Djed Spence; Bellingham, Saka, Palmer out injured16.
• South Florida upsets No. 25 Boise State in college football opener; Nebraska edges Cincinnati at Arrowhead1220.
• World Athletics nears full gene testing compliance for women’s events ahead of Tokyo World Championships13.

Commentary

The Packers’ acquisition of Micah Parsons is the NFL’s most significant pre-season move, immediately impacting both fantasy and betting markets1. Parsons’ elite pass-rush production (52.5 career sacks) should elevate Green Bay’s defense, while Dallas loses a top defensive asset and sees its Super Bowl odds lengthen1. The Week 4 Packers-Cowboys matchup now carries added narrative and betting intrigue1.

In European football, the Champions League draw sets up high-stakes fixtures for top clubs, with PSG, Real Madrid, and several English teams facing challenging schedules2. Newcastle’s pending signing of Nick Woltemade could trigger further striker movement, notably if Liverpool renews interest in Alexander Isak6. Chelsea’s acquisition of Garnacho and the ongoing pursuit of Xavi Simons by both Chelsea and Tottenham are key late-window moves to track for fantasy and betting adjustments78.

NFL injury reports remain in focus: Tyreek Hill’s return is a positive for Miami and fantasy managers, while Jaylen Wright’s absence and De’Von Achane’s status merit monitoring. Darren Waller’s readiness adds a viable tight end option5. On the diamond, Kyle Schwarber’s four-homer, nine-RBI night cements his value for both daily fantasy and prop bettors as he leads the NL in home runs4.

Elsewhere, Messi’s announcement regarding his last home qualifier for Argentina is notable for prop markets and fan sentiment3. Managerial changes at Fenerbahce and Besiktas, England’s squad shakeup, and early college football results (notably South Florida’s upset and Nebraska’s win) round out a busy period for roster and lineup watchers9161220. World Athletics’ gene testing compliance update is relevant for those tracking eligibility ahead of the Tokyo World Championships13.

TL;DR

Alibaba chip hits Nvidia; US ends $800 duty-free imports; PCE inflation to guide Fed rate bets.

Highlights

• Alibaba unveiled a new AI inference chip compatible with Nvidia software, sending Nvidia shares down 1.2% pre-market; Alibaba also missed Q1 revenue forecasts, with strong cloud growth offset by weak e-commerce 110.
• The US ended the $800 duty-free parcel rule, imposing tariffs on all imports; global e-commerce platforms like Etsy and eBay fell as international sellers paused US shipments, and logistics disruptions are expected 3.
• The Indian rupee hit a record low of 88/USD as new US tariffs on Indian goods triggered equity outflows and pressured the currency 7.
• Israel declared Gaza City a combat zone and began a new assault, ending humanitarian pauses and escalating regional tensions 2.
• US Senator Wicker visited Taiwan, reaffirming security ties as China protested and increased military activity around the island 5.
• Russian officials rejected Western security plans for Ukraine, warning against NATO troop deployments and escalating rhetoric 4.
• PepsiCo increased its stake in Celsius Holdings to 11% with a $585 million investment; Celsius shares rose 7.6% pre-market 11.
• BYD’s H1 revenue surpassed Tesla ’s for the first time, but margins remain under pressure from EV price competition; China’s major banks reported flat profits on margin squeeze 1219.
• UK bank stocks dropped after calls for an £8 billion windfall tax on Bank of England reserves 9.
• Ethereum ETFs attracted $1.2 billion in August net inflows, outpacing Bitcoin for six consecutive weeks 18.
• Global markets are steady ahead of US PCE inflation data; US indices at record highs, with rate-cut bets in focus 20.
• Protests in Jakarta triggered a 2% drop in Indonesia’s main equity index and a weaker rupiah 14.

Commentary

US equity futures are steady as traders await the July PCE inflation print, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at record highs 20. The inflation data, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to set the tone for rate expectations into the September FOMC meeting. A softer-than-expected reading could reinforce the prevailing view of a 25bp Fed cut, while a surprise to the upside may prompt a quick re-pricing in rates, the dollar, and risk assets 20.

Tech and AI hardware are in focus after Alibaba ’s new AI inference chip launch, which pressured Nvidia shares pre-market 110. The chip’s compatibility with Nvidia’s software highlights competitive risks for US semiconductor leaders, even as Alibaba’s own results missed revenue and profit expectations outside its strong cloud division 110. The broader tech sector remains sensitive to both US-China competition and ongoing AI investment cycles 120.

The abrupt end of the US duty-free parcel rule is causing immediate disruption across global e-commerce and logistics. Shares of Etsy and eBay are under pressure as international sellers suspend US shipments and shipping costs rise 3. This policy shift is also contributing to currency and equity volatility abroad, notably with the Indian rupee hitting new lows and outflows from Indian equities accelerating 37.

Geopolitical risk remains elevated. The escalation in Gaza 2, renewed US-Taiwan engagement amid heightened Chinese military activity 5, and Russia’s rejection of Western Ukraine security proposals 4 all add to the potential for safe-haven flows. Meanwhile, sector rotation is evident: Celsius surged on fresh investment from PepsiCo 11, while UK banks underperformed on windfall tax concerns 9. In crypto, institutional interest is shifting toward Ethereum, as evidenced by sustained ETF inflows and on-chain activity 18.

Traders should monitor the PCE inflation release for immediate rate and dollar direction, and watch for volatility in US tech, e-commerce, and sectors exposed to global trade and geopolitical risk 20.

TL;DR

Iran sanctions snapback, Russian oil outages, and EMFX volatility drive global market risk.

Highlights

• France, Germany, and the UK triggered the UN "snapback" to restore all Iran sanctions; Russia warned of "irreparable consequences."15
• Ukrainian drone strikes have idled 17% of Russian oil refining capacity, reducing fuel output and export flows.2
• Russia launched a major missile and drone attack on Kyiv, killing 23 and damaging EU and UK offices; EU plans a 19th sanctions package.3
• Israel declared Gaza City a combat zone and began a major assault, ending the humanitarian pause.4
• Indian rupee breached 88/USD to a record low after US tariffs and foreign outflows; RBI intervention expected.10
• Jakarta unrest led to a near 1% rupiah drop and 2.3% slide in the Jakarta Composite Index; authorities consider stimulus.9
• EU fast-tracks removal of US industrial tariffs, unlocking a US auto duty cut to 15%.11
• US extended Section 301 tariff exclusions on Chinese imports to November 2025, maintaining relief for US manufacturers.12
• Nvidia removed China H20 chip sales from forecasts due to lack of orders; Alibaba unveiled a new AI inference chip, pressuring Nvidia shares.1415
• South Korea proposed an 8.1% budget increase for 2026, with record bond issuance and a wider deficit to fund AI-led growth.13
• Global central banks now hold more gold than US Treasuries in reserves for the first time since 1996.19
• CFTC clarified rules for foreign crypto exchanges to access US markets, potentially boosting crypto liquidity.18

Commentary

Geopolitical tensions remain a key driver, with the E3's activation of the UN snapback mechanism set to reinstate sanctions on Iran's oil, finance, and shipping sectors1. Russia's opposition and warnings highlight the risk of further diplomatic rifts, while the move could disrupt Iranian oil flows just as Ukrainian drone attacks are already curbing Russian refining output25. These developments raise the likelihood of tighter global energy supply and sustained price volatility in crude and refined products.

The conflict in Ukraine escalated with Russia's large-scale attack on Kyiv, prompting the EU to prepare a 19th sanctions package3. Meanwhile, Israel's renewed assault on Gaza City and the end of the humanitarian pause signal heightened Middle East instability, with potential spillovers for energy markets and regional risk sentiment4.

Emerging market currencies are under pressure: the Indian rupee hit a record low after US tariffs and portfolio outflows, and the rupiah weakened amid Jakarta unrest910. Both the RBI and Indonesian authorities are preparing intervention or stimulus, but local assets remain vulnerable until political and trade risks ease. South Korea's expansionary budget, focused on AI and funded by record bond issuance, reflects broader efforts in Asia to offset external shocks and maintain growth13.

In tech, Nvidia 's exclusion of China H20 chip sales from forecasts, combined with Alibaba 's new AI inference chip, underscores the impact of US-China tech restrictions and rising domestic competition in China1415. The EU's fast-tracking of tariff removals to unlock US auto duty cuts and the US extension of tariff exclusions for Chinese goods signal ongoing efforts to manage trade tensions1112.

Central banks' move to hold more gold than US Treasuries for the first time since 1996 signals a shift in reserve management amid geopolitical and fiscal concerns19. The CFTC's clarification on crypto exchange access could deepen liquidity and trading volumes in US digital asset markets18.

TL;DR

S&P 500 hits 6,500; Nvidia slips on China chip woes; Trump sets new small-package import duties.

Highlights

• S&P 500 closed above 6,500 for the first time; Dow also hit a record, driven by a Q2 GDP revision to 3.3% and lower jobless claims 11.
• Nvidia shares slipped ~2% after confirming no H20 AI chip orders from China; ongoing export uncertainty persists despite strong revenue growth 1.
• Dell raised its FY26 revenue outlook to $109B on AI server demand but issued soft Q3 profit guidance; shares fell ~5% after hours 3.
• HP Inc. and Autodesk beat earnings estimates on AI-driven demand; Best Buy posted solid sales but maintained a cautious outlook due to tariffs 3.
• Ulta Beauty beat Q2 estimates, raised FY25 outlook, and shares rose 6% on continued strong beauty demand 5.
• Affirm Holdings jumped 10% after a strong EPS beat and 43% GMV growth, signaling ongoing BNPL momentum 6.
• Trump administration announced $80–$200 flat duties on all incoming small packages for six months, with product-specific tariffs to follow 2.
• Nvidia began talks with the White House on Blackwell chip export approvals to China; process remains at an early stage 4.
• IREN Limited secured Nvidia partner status, announced a major AI cloud expansion to 10,900 GPUs by end-2025, and reported record revenue 12.
• 21Shares filed for a staked Sei token ETF with the SEC, adding to the growing US crypto ETF pipeline 7.
• CDC leadership turmoil escalated with the ouster of Director Monarez, staff walkouts, and senior resignations 89.
• Country Eggs LLC expanded its recall after a Salmonella outbreak sickened at least 95 people in 14 states 10.

Commentary

US equities extended their rally, with the S&P 500 closing above 6,500 for the first time, supported by stronger Q2 GDP data and a continued decline in jobless claims. These macro signals reinforced the market’s view of a resilient US economy, helping offset some sector-specific headwinds and keeping volatility low 11.

AI hardware and infrastructure remain a central market theme. Nvidia ’s revenue growth and sector-wide AI demand (as seen in Dell , HP , and Autodesk results) continue to drive tech leadership, but China export restrictions are a clear overhang. Nvidia ’s lack of H20 chip sales to China 1 and the slow progress on Blackwell export approvals 4 highlight ongoing regulatory risk. Dell ’s upbeat annual outlook was overshadowed by cautious profit guidance, suggesting margin pressures as AI hardware demand scales 3.

Consumer and retail results were mixed. Ulta Beauty ’s strong quarter and raised outlook point to resilient discretionary spending in select categories 5, while Best Buy ’s flat guidance and tariff concerns underscore persistent margin risks from shifting trade policy 3. The Trump administration’s move to impose flat duties on all small-package imports—transitioning to product-specific tariffs—signals further tightening of US trade policy, with potential implications for retail supply chains, inflation, and consumer sentiment 2.

Fintech and crypto activity remains robust. Affirm’s strong quarter and upbeat GMV guidance indicate continued demand for alternative financing 6. IREN ’s expansion into Nvidia -powered AI cloud services reflects the ongoing convergence of crypto infrastructure and high-performance computing 12. The 21Shares staked Sei ETF filing adds to the growing queue of digital asset products seeking SEC approval, signaling persistent institutional interest in crypto exposure 7.

Healthcare and regulatory risk are in focus following leadership upheaval at the CDC, which could have implications for health sector sentiment and policy oversight 89. Traders should watch Friday’s PCE inflation data for clues on the Fed’s next move, monitor US-China tech policy developments, and remain alert to any fallout from CDC instability.

TL;DR

CFTC opens U.S. to offshore exchanges; stablecoin supply surges; ETH ETFs hit record inflows.

Highlights

• CFTC clarifies Foreign Board of Trade (FBOT) rules, enabling offshore crypto exchanges to serve U.S. clients under CFTC oversight 1.
• Tether to launch USDT on Bitcoin via RGB protocol, aiming for native and private stablecoin transfers 2.
• Tether and Circle minted over $3.5B in stablecoins in one day, driving Solana stablecoin market cap above $12B 3.
• Bitcoin fell to $108,000 amid $550M in liquidations and continued ETF outflows; $111,000 eyed as initial support 4.
• Ethereum ETFs saw record inflows, assets surpassing $30B, while Bitcoin ETFs faced significant redemptions 6.
• Four new wallets accumulated $358M in Ether via FalconX, reflecting large-scale rotation from BTC to ETH 8.
• U.S. Commerce Dept. published GDP data on nine blockchains, including Bitcoin and Ethereum , in a first on-chain government data release 5.
• Trump Media & Technology Group announced a $6.4B Cronos treasury with Crypto.com, pushing CRO up 26% 10.
• Lombard Finance launched $1.5B yield-bearing Bitcoin token (LBTC) on Solana , expanding BTC’s DeFi presence 11.
• Aave Labs launched Horizon, letting institutions borrow stablecoins against tokenized Treasuries and other real-world assets 12.
• Crypto investment funds saw $1.4B in weekly outflows, the largest since March, led by Bitcoin and DeFi product redemptions 9.
• Robinhood listed Toncoin for U.S. users ahead of Coinbase , expanding access to Telegram’s Web3 ecosystem 14.

Commentary

Regulatory clarity took a front seat as the CFTC’s FBOT guidance formally opens the door for offshore exchanges to serve U.S. clients under direct CFTC supervision 1. This move could restore U.S. access to major global venues, potentially improving liquidity and reducing trading frictions for both retail and institutional participants 1. The agency’s adoption of Nasdaq’s surveillance platform further signals a tightening regulatory environment as Congress debates expanded crypto oversight 19.

Stablecoin activity surged, with Tether and Circle minting over $3.5B in a single day—an influx that lifted Solana ’s stablecoin market cap to its highest in 15 weeks and highlighted renewed demand for on-chain dollar liquidity 3. Tether’s plan to issue USDT natively on Bitcoin via RGB protocol suggests ongoing competition among stablecoin issuers to expand reach and utility across major networks 2. Venture funding rounds for Rain and M0 reinforce the institutional focus on stablecoin infrastructure and programmable money 1617.

Market rotation was evident as Bitcoin dropped to $108,000, triggering $550M in liquidations and continued ETF outflows 4, while Ethereum ETFs attracted record inflows 6 and large wallets accumulated ETH through prime brokers 8. The divergence between BTC and ETH flows is underscored by institutional allocations and ETF data, with Ethereum now holding a stronger narrative among asset managers 6. Meanwhile, DeFi and tokenization continue to attract institutional capital, with Aave’s Horizon targeting RWA-backed lending 12 and Lombard’s LBTC bringing yield-bearing Bitcoin to Solana 11.

Altcoins and infrastructure tokens saw notable developments: Trump Media’s $6.4B CRO treasury announcement drove a sharp rally in CRO 10, and Robinhood ’s TON listing pre-empted Coinbase , boosting U.S. retail access to Telegram’s ecosystem 14. The U.S. Commerce Department’s on-chain GDP data release signals further government engagement with blockchain technology, potentially broadening data transparency and DeFi use cases 5.

Traders should monitor the impact of renewed U.S. exchange access 1, the deployment of fresh stablecoin liquidity 3, and the persistence of ETH inflows versus BTC outflows 6. Volatility remains elevated, particularly in BTC 4, but institutional and regulatory shifts are shaping new opportunities across major and emerging crypto assets.

TL;DR

Commonwealth Fusion raises $863M; ByteDance sets $330B buyback; CFTC opens U.S. to offshore crypto exchanges.

Highlights

• Commonwealth Fusion Systems raised $863M Series B2 led by Nvidia and Google , bringing total funding to ~$3B to complete its SPARC fusion reactor and advance commercial rollout 1.
• ByteDance set a $330B valuation in a new employee buyback, up 5.5% from March, amid 25% YoY revenue growth and ongoing U.S. TikTok regulatory pressure 2.
• Sycamore Partners completed its $10B take-private of Walgreens Boots Alliance , installing new leadership and focusing on core pharmacy and retail 3.
• Framer, an Amsterdam-based no-code website builder, raised $100M Series D at a $2B valuation, doubling ARR targets for 2026 4.
• Stablecoin card startup Rain raised $58M Series B led by Sapphire Ventures, accelerating stablecoin-linked payments for business clients 5.
• Swiss stablecoin infrastructure platform M0 raised $40M Series B led by Polychain and Ribbit, supporting compliant institutional stablecoin issuance 6.
• aPriori Network secured $20M to expand institutional-grade on-chain trading and staking tools, with backing from HashKey, Pantera, and others 7.
• The Clearing Company, launched by ex-Polymarket/Kalshi team, raised $15M seed led by USV and Coinbase Ventures to launch regulated on-chain prediction markets 8.
• Animoca’s The Sandbox cut 50% of staff and closed five offices, reflecting metaverse sector contraction and pivot toward memecoin infrastructure 9.
• CFTC will clarify Foreign Board of Trade rules, allowing offshore crypto exchanges to serve U.S. customers under new oversight 11.
• Madrona released its 2025 IA40 list, highlighting 40 top private AI startups across stages and infrastructure 10.
• American Bitcoin, backed by Trump family, to list on Nasdaq via Gryphon merger in September, targeting U.S. bitcoin mining leadership 15.
• Lombard launched a $1.5B yield-bearing bitcoin token (LBTC) on Solana , expanding DeFi collateral options 14.
• Apple pulled iTorrent from EU third-party store AltStore PAL, as regulatory scrutiny of App Store practices intensifies globally 13.

Commentary

Capital is flowing into infrastructure and compliance-driven plays across energy, fintech, and crypto. The $863M round for Commonwealth Fusion, led by both strategic and institutional investors including Nvidia and Google , demonstrates continued appetite for deep tech with clear commercialization milestones. The scale and syndicate diversity signal a maturing fusion sector, with corporates like Google not only investing but also securing offtake, hinting at future corporate-VC alignment in hard tech 1.

Fintech and digital asset infrastructure remain active. Rain’s and M0’s rounds highlight institutional demand for stablecoin payment rails and compliant issuance platforms, especially as U.S. regulatory frameworks clarify 56. The CFTC’s move to streamline offshore exchange access to U.S. customers could drive renewed activity in crypto trading infrastructure, M&A, and U.S.-focused product launches 11. aPriori and The Clearing Company’s funding rounds show that institutional-grade DeFi and on-chain prediction markets are gaining traction, with regulatory alignment increasingly a prerequisite for venture backing 78.

Software and AI continue to attract growth capital, as seen with Framer’s $2B valuation and Madrona’s IA40 list spotlighting high-potential AI startups 410. Late-stage SaaS is benefitting from improved public market comps, while productivity and infrastructure remain favored themes. In contrast, The Sandbox’s restructuring and layoffs reflect ongoing contraction in consumer-facing Web3 and metaverse, with capital shifting away from speculative virtual assets toward utility and compliance 9.

Late-stage private market dynamics are notable: ByteDance’s $330B buyback, funded internally amid regulatory headwinds, underscores the strength of private liquidity programs for large tech 2, while Walgreens ’ take-private by Sycamore signals continued PE interest in undervalued public assets with turnaround potential 3. The American Bitcoin SPAC listing and Lombard’s $1.5B bitcoin token launch point to continued innovation and capital formation in digital assets, despite regulatory complexity 1415.

TL;DR

S&P 500 hits record; US GDP revised up; Nvidia, Intel, and EU-US trade drive sector moves.

Highlights

• S&P 500 hits record high above 6,500, extending 2025 rally to 33% since April5.
• US Q2 GDP revised up to 3.3%, with jobless claims falling and inflation measures stable2.
• Nvidia in talks with Trump administration to sell Blackwell AI chips to China; shares rebound1.
• Intel receives $5.7B in CHIPS Act funds; Altera acquisition close; US equity stake deal pending8.
• EU fast-tracks removal of US industrial tariffs; US to cut auto duties on EU cars to 15% from 27.5%6.
• France, Germany, UK trigger UN snapback sanctions on Iran, raising risk of renewed oil market pressure3.
• US 30-year mortgage rates fall to 6.56%, a 10-month low, though still above pre-pandemic levels4.
• CFTC clarifies rules for offshore crypto exchanges, reopening legal US access to major platforms12.
• Tether mints $2B USDT in 24 hours, announces native USDT launch on Bitcoin via RGB protocol1320.
• JPMorgan says Bitcoin is undervalued vs. gold , sees fair value at $126K by end-202514.
• CrowdStrike warns of slower revenue growth after IT outage; multiple brokerages cut price targets11.
• Congressional leaders seek urgent talks to avert Sept. 30 government shutdown amid Medicaid and spending disputes15.

Commentary

US equities closed at new highs, with the S&P 500 surpassing 6,500, as investors digested stronger-than-expected macro data and a series of sector-specific headlines5. The upward revision of Q2 GDP to 3.3% and a drop in jobless claims reinforce the narrative of a resilient US economy, with inflation readings remaining in check2. This macro backdrop continues to support risk assets, even as select names—such as CrowdStrike —face idiosyncratic headwinds11.

Semiconductors remain in focus: Nvidia ’s ongoing negotiations with the Trump administration over Blackwell chip sales to China could unlock substantial revenue if restrictions ease1, while Intel ’s $5.7B CHIPS Act disbursement and pending Altera deal highlight continued US investment in domestic chip capacity8. These developments are key for tech sector sentiment and may influence broader US-China trade dynamics.

On the policy front, the EU’s accelerated removal of US industrial tariffs and the US’s planned auto duty cuts should benefit transatlantic industrials and automakers, reducing trade friction6. However, the E3’s activation of UN snapback sanctions on Iran raises the risk of renewed volatility in energy markets, particularly if Iranian oil exports are further restricted3. Mortgage rates have eased to a 10-month low, offering some relief to US housing, but affordability remains constrained4.

Crypto markets are seeing regulatory tailwinds: the CFTC’s new guidance is set to expand US access to global crypto exchanges, likely boosting liquidity12. Tether ’s $2B USDT mint and native launch on Bitcoin ’s RGB protocol further signal growing infrastructure and institutional engagement1320. JPMorgan’s note calling Bitcoin undervalued versus gold may provide additional support for digital asset prices14.

Traders should monitor late-session moves in large-cap tech, autos, and energy, as well as potential headline risk from Washington, where government funding talks remain unresolved15. Macro data and policy signals remain constructive, but geopolitical and regulatory developments could drive volatility into the close.

TL;DR

Nvidia seeks U.S. approval for Blackwell chip sales to China; China accelerates AI chip self-sufficiency; Anthropic, OpenAI, and ESET flag rising AI security risks.

Highlights

• Nvidia is negotiating with the U.S. government for permission to export Blackwell AI chips to China, offering a 30–50% revenue share; U.S. officials expect a 15% levy on H20 chip sales, which Nvidia warns could trigger litigation 13.
• U.S. export controls are accelerating China’s domestic AI chip push, with Cambricon, Huawei, and SMIC expanding capacity and Chinese AI startups shifting to local hardware 4.
• Nvidia reported Q2 revenue of $46.7B (above estimates), but shares slipped on a slight data-center sales miss and no H20 sales to China; $60B buyback announced 2.
• Nvidia projects global AI infrastructure spend could reach $3–4 trillion by 2030; 2025 data-center capex estimated at $600B 15.
• The Pentagon ordered an audit of Microsoft ’s cloud services after Chinese engineers supported DoD systems; all Chinese involvement in U.S. defense cloud projects is now barred 5.
• Anthropic launched a browser-based Claude agent and reported “vibe-hacking” attacks using AI for psychological ransomware; security guardrails tightened 6.
• ESET identified “PromptLock,” AI-generated ransomware using OpenAI’s gpt-oss:20b; Microsoft warned of a shift to cloud-native extortion 12.
• FBI and allied agencies issued a global warning on China-backed Salt Typhoon cyber-espionage, targeting 600 organizations, including 200 U.S. firms 13.
• OpenAI will add parental controls and suicide-prevention features to ChatGPT after a lawsuit; OpenAI and Anthropic are conducting joint safety evaluations 10.
• Nous Research released Hermes 4, an open-weight Llama 3.1-based model with hybrid reasoning and strong benchmark performance 7.
• Google launched the Pixel 10 line with on-device Gemini Nano AI and released the “Nano Banana” image-to-video model; Higgsfield offers a year of free access 811.
• xAI released Grok Code Fast 1, a low-cost code assistant with a 256k context window, targeting the AI coding market 9.
• Snowflake raised its FY26 outlook on strong AI-driven demand; CrowdStrike shares fell on a softer revenue guide despite beating Q2 forecasts 14.

Commentary

Export controls continue to shape the global AI hardware landscape. Nvidia ’s negotiations with the U.S. government to export Blackwell chips to China—offering a significant revenue share—highlight both the commercial importance of the Chinese market and the regulatory hurdles faced by U.S. chipmakers 13. The U.S. expectation of a 15% levy on H20 chip sales, which Nvidia says could prompt litigation, adds further complexity 3. Meanwhile, China is moving quickly to build a self-sufficient AI chip ecosystem, with Cambricon, Huawei, and SMIC expanding production and local AI startups optimizing for domestic hardware 4. This shift is likely to further reduce U.S. chip sales to China and accelerate hardware-software alignment within China 4.

Nvidia ’s Q2 results beat expectations, but the market penalized a slight data-center revenue miss and the absence of H20 sales to China 2. The company’s $60B buyback and bullish forecast for global AI infrastructure spend ($3–4T by 2030) underscore ongoing enterprise demand, but also reflect investor sensitivity to growth signals in core business lines 215. Snowflake ’s upgraded outlook, in contrast to CrowdStrike ’s muted guidance, illustrates that AI-driven demand is strongest where cloud and data infrastructure spending is most visible 14.

Security and safety issues remain prominent. Anthropic’s launch of a browser-based Claude agent, paired with reports of AI-enabled “vibe-hacking” and ESET’s discovery of AI-generated ransomware, highlight the evolving threat landscape as agentic AI systems proliferate 612. Microsoft ’s warning about cloud-native extortion and the FBI’s global alert on China-backed Salt Typhoon cyber-espionage reinforce the need for robust security protocols in both enterprise and government deployments 1213. The Pentagon’s audit of Microsoft cloud services and new restrictions on foreign support for DoD systems further reflect heightened scrutiny of supply chain and data sovereignty risks 5.

On the product side, the pace of innovation remains high. Nous Research’s Hermes 4 open-weight model 7, Google ’s on-device Gemini Nano AI and “Nano Banana” video model 811, and xAI’s Grok Code Fast 1 coding assistant all signal increasing competition in both open-source and commercial AI offerings 9. OpenAI’s move to add parental controls and collaborate with Anthropic on safety evaluations demonstrates rising regulatory and societal expectations for responsible AI deployment 10.

TL;DR

NFL bans prediction markets; Chiefs, 49ers lose WRs to suspension; Milan signs Nkunku from Chelsea.

Highlights

• NFL bans all personnel from using Kalshi-style prediction markets, labeling them prohibited gambling 1.
• Chiefs WR Rashee Rice suspended 6 games (personal conduct); 49ers WR Demarcus Robinson suspended 3 games (DUI) 3.
• Ravens make Kyle Hamilton NFL’s highest-paid safety with a 4-year, $100.4M extension 5.
• Cowboys reiterate Micah Parsons is not available for trade amid contract dispute and Packers rumors 6.
• Inter Miami’s Lionel Messi scores twice on return from injury, securing Leagues Cup final spot and 2026 Champions Cup berth 4.
• Grimsby Town eliminates Manchester United on penalties in Carabao Cup, increasing scrutiny on manager Ruben Amorim 2.
• AC Milan agrees to sign Chelsea’s Christopher Nkunku for up to €42M; Chelsea seeks further squad moves 8.
• RB Leipzig allows Xavi Simons to negotiate with Spurs and Chelsea; Spurs now leading talks 7.
• Brewers place closer Trevor Megill on IL (flexor strain); White Sox lose Luis Robert Jr. to hamstring injury 13.
• Shohei Ohtani earns first pitching win in 749 days as Dodgers widen NL West lead 12.
• US Open: Medvedev fined $42,500 after first-round loss and outburst 10; Taylor Townsend upsets Ostapenko 11; Jack Draper withdraws injured 17.
• UEFA Champions League draw set for Thursday with new 36-team format 14; final moves to 18:00 CEST kickoff 15.

Commentary

The NFL is tightening its stance on gambling, now banning personnel from using event prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket 1. This move closes a compliance gap and clarifies league policy for players and staff, but also signals to fantasy players and bettors that the NFL continues to draw a hard line between regulated sportsbooks and emerging financial betting products 1.

Roster volatility is front and center as the Chiefs and 49ers lose key receivers to suspensions just before final cuts, forcing both teams to adjust depth charts and impacting early-season fantasy and betting projections 3. The Ravens’ extension for Kyle Hamilton sets a new market for safeties 5, while the Cowboys continue to hold firm on Micah Parsons despite his holdout and trade request, keeping a close watch on Dallas’s defensive outlook 6.

In Europe, the transfer window is active: AC Milan’s deal for Nkunku and Spurs’ lead in talks for Xavi Simons suggest major squad changes ahead of the Champions League 78, while Chelsea’s outgoing and incoming moves will affect both their domestic and continental campaigns 8. The Champions League draw, now with a 36-team format and new scheduling, will directly impact fixture congestion and squad rotation strategies for fantasy and betting 1415.

Injuries remain a key theme: the Brewers and White Sox lose core players during the playoff push 13, and Shohei Ohtani’s successful pitching return is a bright spot for the Dodgers 12. At the US Open, Medvedev’s meltdown 10, Townsend’s upset 11, and Draper’s withdrawal 17 shift the betting landscape and open up the men’s and women’s draws.

TL;DR

US GDP revised up, Nvidia’s AI growth slows, Trump imposes 50% tariffs on Indian imports.

Highlights

• US Q2 GDP revised up to 3.1%; core PCE inflation steady at 2.6%, above Fed target; jobless claims stable; Treasury yields rise ahead of Fed Governor Waller’s speech1.
• Nvidia posts record $46.7B Q2 revenue (+56% YoY), but data-center sales slightly miss; shares down 2–3% after hours as AI growth moderates2.
• Trump administration imposes 50% tariffs on Indian imports to pressure Russian oil flows; oil markets volatile, WTI near $643.
• Best Buy beats Q2 estimates but maintains cautious FY outlook due to tariff and margin concerns; shares down ~4% pre-market9.
• TSMC and Amkor to build major chip packaging facility in Arizona; Apple to secure half of TSMC’s 2nm output; 1.4nm fab to break ground in Taiwan10.
• White House fires CDC chief Monarez after vaccine policy clash with RFK Jr.; top CDC officials resign; FDA narrows Covid-19 vaccine authorization to high-risk groups5.
• Berkshire Hathaway raises Mitsubishi stake above 10%, increasing influence in Japanese trading houses12.
• Pemex’s Dos Bocas refinery outage shifts Maya crude processing to Deer Park, Texas, highlighting operational risk8.
• BYD overtakes Tesla in European EV sales as July registrations rise 5.9%; battery-electric and plug-in hybrid demand strong15.
• American Bitcoin, backed by Trump’s sons, to list on Nasdaq in September via merger; Ark Invest adds $15.6M of BitMine as Ether nears record highs1620.
• China to cut over 90M tonnes of coal-based steel output by 2026, cap coal production, and accelerate domestic iron ore projects6.

Commentary

US macro data remain firm with Q2 GDP revised up and core PCE inflation holding above target, keeping pressure on the Fed as yields climb ahead of Governor Waller’s speech1. The market’s focus is on whether the Fed signals a more hawkish stance, especially with inflation still above 2%. Stable jobless claims and subdued pending home sales point to a resilient but mixed consumer backdrop1. The ECB’s warning about political pressure on the Fed adds another layer of uncertainty for rates and the dollar7.

In equities, Nvidia ’s strong headline quarter was tempered by a slight miss in data-center sales and signs of moderating AI demand, triggering a modest pullback in the stock2. Best Buy ’s beat was overshadowed by management’s cautious outlook on tariffs and margins, reflecting broader retail sector concerns about US-China trade policy and consumer sensitivity to higher prices9. TSMC ’s US expansion and Apple ’s large 2nm chip allocation reinforce the ongoing US tech supply chain buildout, with implications for US semiconductor and equipment names10.

Geopolitical and commodity risks are front and center. Trump’s new tariffs on Indian imports to curb Russian oil revenues have injected fresh volatility into crude, with WTI oscillating around $643. The move could disrupt global supply chains if India retaliates or shifts sourcing3. The Pemex Dos Bocas outage8 and China’s planned steel and coal output cuts6 add further complexity to commodity flows and pricing, with potential knock-on effects for US energy and materials sectors.

Healthcare faces renewed uncertainty after the White House removed the CDC chief following a policy dispute with RFK Jr., triggering multiple high-level resignations and a narrowing of vaccine guidance5. This may weigh on healthcare sentiment and policy visibility. Meanwhile, crypto-related equities could see activity with American Bitcoin’s upcoming Nasdaq listing16 and Ark Invest’s increased stake in BitMine as Ether approaches record highs20.

TL;DR

Russian strikes escalate; EU/UK trigger new sanctions on Russia/Iran; U.S. doubles tariffs on India.

Highlights

• Russian missile strikes kill 15 in Kyiv, damage EU and UK institutions; EU leaders push for tighter sanctions as attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure intensify 1.
• UK, France, and Germany move to trigger UN snapback sanctions on Iran, risking reimposed restrictions on Iranian energy and finance 2.
• Trump administration doubles tariffs on most Indian goods to 50%, threatening $37B in exports; India seeks new trade deals and markets 4.
• Mexico to propose tariffs on Chinese cars, textiles, and plastics in 2026 budget, responding to U.S. pressure and domestic industry concerns 5.
• China to cut over 90 million tonnes of coal-based steel output by 2026, cap coal production, and expand domestic iron ore projects 6.
• Russia extends full gasoline export ban through September; Arctic LNG 2 delivers first sanctioned LNG cargo to China 78.
• EU considers secondary sanctions on third-country firms aiding Russia, with possible new restrictions on oil, gas, and finance 11.
• Bank of Korea holds rates but signals majority support for a cut within months; Philippine central bank cuts rates to 5% 920.
• Japan’s 2-year JGB auction sees weakest demand since 2009, reflecting caution ahead of potential BOJ policy changes 10.
• Berkshire Hathaway raises Mitsubishi stake above 10%, becoming top shareholder and signaling continued interest in Japanese trading houses 18.
• FBI and allies warn of Chinese “Salt Typhoon” cyber-espionage campaign in 80 countries; Pentagon orders audit of Microsoft cloud after Chinese engineer involvement 1312.
• Europe’s auto market rebounds in July; BYD overtakes Tesla in regional EV sales as Chinese brands gain share 17.

Commentary

Geopolitical risk remains front and center, with Russian strikes on Kyiv and damage to EU-linked infrastructure prompting European calls for stricter sanctions 1. The EU is also considering secondary sanctions to clamp down on Russia’s access to global markets 11, while the UK, France, and Germany are moving to reimpose broad UN sanctions on Iran—both actions that could further restrict energy flows and add volatility to oil and gas prices 211. Russia’s gasoline export ban extension 7 and the first sanctioned LNG cargo from Arctic LNG 2 to China 8 highlight ongoing disruptions and evolving sanction enforcement in global energy trade.

Trade protectionism is intensifying. The Trump administration’s 50% tariffs on Indian goods threaten significant disruption to bilateral trade, especially in labor-intensive sectors, with India accelerating diversification efforts 4. Mexico’s planned tariffs on Chinese imports reflect both domestic pressures and alignment with U.S. trade policy 5, while China’s steel output cuts and anti-dumping measures underscore efforts to stabilize domestic industry amid global headwinds 616. These developments point to ongoing supply chain adjustments and potential currency and commodity volatility, particularly in emerging markets.

Central banks in Asia are signaling a cautious easing bias. The Bank of Korea held rates but flagged likely cuts within months 9, while the Philippines delivered another rate reduction to support growth 20. In contrast, Japan’s weak 2-year JGB auction signals market nerves ahead of possible BOJ normalization, which could impact regional fixed income and FX markets 10.

In equities, Berkshire Hathaway ’s increased stake in Mitsubishi signals sustained foreign interest in Japanese corporates despite shifting rate expectations 18. Europe’s auto sector is rebounding, with Chinese EV makers like BYD gaining ground despite regulatory scrutiny and tariff threats 17. Meanwhile, cybersecurity risks are in focus following the exposure of a major Chinese cyber-espionage campaign 13 and the Pentagon’s audit of Microsoft ’s cloud operations 12, raising the risk profile for tech and defense sectors.

TL;DR

Nvidia slips post-earnings on data-center miss; S&P 500 hits record; Fed signals September rate cut.

Highlights

• • Nvidia beat Q2 estimates and announced a $60B buyback; shares fell 4–5% after hours on a slight data-center revenue miss and regulatory uncertainty over H20 chip sales to China12.
• • S&P 500 closed at a record 6,481.29 (+0.24%) ahead of Nvidia results; Fed commentary reinforced September rate-cut bets6.
• • HP Inc. topped Q3 revenue estimates on AI PC demand, raised Q4 outlook; shares rose 4–6% after hours8.
• • Snowflake surged 10%+ post-market on a strong Q2 beat and raised full-year guidance; Bill Holdings launched a $300M buyback amid cautious FY26 guidance9.
• • Okta raised its outlook and gained up to 8% after hours; CrowdStrike beat Q2 but guided Q3 revenue light, sending shares down 7%1011.
• • Five Below beat Q2 estimates and lifted 2025 outlook despite ongoing tariff pressures12.
• • Mexico plans new tariffs on Chinese goods in its 2026 budget, responding to U.S. pressure and supply-chain shifts5.
• • U.S. offered India a 25% tariff cut if it stops buying Russian oil, tying trade terms to energy policy4.
• • Pentagon ordered an audit of Microsoft’s cloud services and barred Chinese support, increasing scrutiny on tech sector security3.
• • CDC director ousted after four weeks; FDA revoked Covid-19 vaccine EUAs, adding to healthcare sector uncertainty14.
• • Trump administration proposed fixed time limits for student, exchange, and media visas, potentially impacting U.S. universities and media firms15.
• • Aave launched Horizon, letting institutions borrow stablecoins against tokenized Treasuries and other real-world assets13.

Commentary

Nvidia ’s Q2 results were the focal point, with headline beats on revenue and earnings, a $60B buyback, and slightly positive Q3 guidance1. However, a minor miss in data-center revenue and new regulatory uncertainty over H20 chip sales to China weighed on sentiment, sending shares down 4–5% after hours12. Given Nvidia ’s heavy index weight, this is likely to pressure tech and broader benchmarks in the next session, despite the S&P 500 closing at a record earlier as traders positioned for these results16.

Earnings from enterprise software and cybersecurity firms were mixed. Snowflake ’s strong quarter and raised outlook drove a sharp after-hours rally, while Okta’s raised guidance contrasted with CrowdStrike ’s softer Q3 revenue forecast, which led to a post-market drop91011. HP ’s beat and improved outlook, driven by AI PC demand, and Five Below’s strong retail results highlight selective resilience in consumer and enterprise demand, though both flagged ongoing tariff and supply-chain headwinds812.

Macro and policy developments remain active. The Fed’s dovish tone kept rate-cut expectations firm for September, supporting risk assets6. Meanwhile, Mexico’s planned tariffs on Chinese imports and the U.S. offer to India to cut tariffs in exchange for reduced Russian oil purchases signal continued trade realignment and potential supply-chain adjustments45. The Pentagon’s audit of Microsoft ’s cloud and ban on Chinese support increases compliance risk for tech vendors serving the U.S. government3.

Healthcare and immigration policy added uncertainty: the abrupt ouster of the CDC director and the FDA’s revocation of Covid-19 vaccine EUAs create new questions for the sector14. The Trump administration’s move to impose fixed time limits on student and media visas could disrupt U.S. universities and media organizations reliant on international talent15. In crypto, Aave’s institutional lending platform launch points to further integration of traditional assets with DeFi13.

Traders should watch for continued volatility in tech, especially Nvidia and index-linked names, as well as reactions to mixed software earnings, evolving trade policy, and any regulatory headlines impacting sector sentiment.

TL;DR

Bitcoin drops to $108K on whale sale; ETH institutional inflows surge; $1.4B exits crypto funds.

Highlights

• • Bitcoin dropped to $108K after a 24,000 BTC whale sale, triggering $550M in liquidations; support at $107K–$108.9K is being tested 1.
• • Ethereum saw renewed institutional inflows, with ETFs and treasuries now holding over $50B (9% of supply); derivatives open interest is near all-time highs 5.
• • A major Bitcoin OG rotated ~$3B from BTC into 641,508 ETH , staking most of the new ETH 11.
• • Crypto funds experienced $1.4B in weekly outflows, led by redemptions from Bitcoin, Ether, and DeFi products 4.
• • Dormant 2012-era BTC whale sent $83M to Binance, raising concerns about potential sell pressure 2.
• • Standard Chartered raised its year-end ETH target to $7,500, citing accelerating institutional accumulation; SharpLink added $252M in ETH to its $3.7B treasury 1317.
• • Circle and Tether minted a combined $1.25B in stablecoins, with new tokens still in issuer wallets 3.
• • Aave Labs launched Horizon, enabling institutional stablecoin loans backed by tokenized Treasuries and credit pools 16.
• • Hyperliquid will allocate 99% of trading fees to HYPE token buybacks; XPL flash pump on Hyperliquid netted Justin Sun $16M and caused liquidations 910.
• • CFTC deployed Nasdaq ’s surveillance platform for crypto oversight but faces a leadership gap after Johnson’s exit; over 100 crypto firms are demanding developer protections in pending Senate legislation 7814.
• • Google Cloud introduced its GCUL Layer 1 blockchain for cross-border finance; Bitwise and REX/Osprey filed for Chainlink and BNB staking ETFs, respectively 61519.
• • Camp Network ’s CAMP token to list on KuCoin, Kraken, and others, expanding Layer 1 and content-tokenization offerings 18.

Commentary

Bitcoin ’s decline to $108K, triggered by a large whale sale and $550M in liquidations, has put key support levels in focus 1. The move highlights ongoing market fragility, especially amid high leverage and a hawkish Fed backdrop 1. On-chain data shows additional sell-side risk from dormant whales moving coins to exchanges 2, while long-term holders have realized $260B in profits this cycle, signaling late-cycle behavior and potential for continued supply pressure 20.

Ethereum continues to attract institutional capital, with ETFs and treasuries now controlling over 9% of supply and open interest in derivatives markets at record highs 5. The notable BTC-to-ETH rotation by a major OG whale—totaling ~$3B in value—reflects this shift 11. SharpLink ’s $252M ETH buy and Standard Chartered’s $7,500 year-end target reinforce the narrative of growing institutional preference for ETH, especially as staking yields and treasury adoption differentiate it from BTC 1317.

Outflows from crypto funds and DeFi products reached $1.4B this week, the worst since March, as investors de-risk in response to macro uncertainty and recent volatility 4. Stablecoin issuers Circle and Tether minted $1.25B in new tokens, though these have yet to hit exchanges, suggesting possible dry powder if sentiment shifts 3. In DeFi, Aave ’s Horizon launch and Hyperliquid’s fee realignment point to continued protocol innovation 1610, but the XPL flash pump and ensuing liquidations on Hyperliquid underscore the risks of thin liquidity and inadequate risk controls in decentralized derivatives 9.

Regulatory developments remain a key watchpoint. The CFTC ’s adoption of Nasdaq ’s surveillance platform should improve market monitoring 7, but the agency’s leadership vacuum and resource constraints could limit its effectiveness 8. Meanwhile, industry groups are pressuring the Senate for explicit developer protections in market structure legislation, as legal clarity for DeFi and open-source contributors remains unresolved 14.

Traders should monitor BTC ’s support zone, ETH ’s resilience amid institutional accumulation, and any large on-chain movements from dormant whales 12511. Watch for distribution of newly minted stablecoins, ETF approval timelines, and liquidity/risk management on derivatives platforms 361019. Regulatory clarity and fund flows will remain central to near-term market direction 4714.

TL;DR

OpenAI preps $8B secondary sale; PE fundraising hits 7-year low; Anthropic settles key copyright suit.

Highlights

• OpenAI plans an $8B employee secondary share sale, exceeding earlier targets, as governance talks with Microsoft delay restructuring and threaten SoftBank’s $10B investment 12.
• Meta hires Apple AI executive Frank Chu for its Superintelligence Labs, but faces early staff departures, including returns to OpenAI, highlighting retention and execution issues 2.
• Anthropic settles a major copyright lawsuit with U.S. authors over AI training data, removing a significant legal risk; OpenAI, Microsoft , and Meta still face similar suits 6.
• Private equity fundraising drops to a seven-year low; Bain Capital explores a $1.35–$1.4B take-private sale of Canada Goose amid sluggish exits and tighter LP capital 34.
• Sompo Holdings acquires Aspen Insurance for $3.5B from Apollo , expanding its U.S. specialty insurance presence as Japanese insurers seek overseas growth 5.
• Alphabet ’s Verily shuts its medical devices unit and cuts jobs; Massachusetts biotech VC investment falls 17% in H1 2025, reaching 2017 levels 7.
• Intel warns of shareholder dilution and export risks after the U.S. government converts $11.1B CHIPS Act grants into a 10% equity stake 8.
• Cambricon’s Shanghai shares surge after a 4,348% YoY sales jump, underscoring China’s AI chip momentum as markets await Nvidia ’s $46B earnings 9.
• CFTC left with a single commissioner after Johnson’s resignation, stalling rulemaking as crypto industry pushes for regulatory clarity; agency deploys Nasdaq ’s surveillance platform for digital assets 1011.
• Mastercard expands its Circle partnership to enable USDC and EURC settlement in EEMEA; Circle also partners with Finastra to integrate stablecoin rails for banks 12.
• Google Cloud unveils its GCUL Layer 1 blockchain for institutional cross-border finance, joining Stripe and Circle in building proprietary settlement networks 13.
• Crypto funds see $1.4B in weekly outflows, the worst since March, driven by macro uncertainty and thin trading 14.
• OpenAI faces a wrongful-death lawsuit alleging ChatGPT coached a teen’s suicide, prompting the company to announce new safety measures 15.

Commentary

AI remains a focal point for private capital, with OpenAI’s $8B secondary sale highlighting sustained investor demand for generative AI exposure—even as governance and fundraising complexities persist 1. The ongoing negotiations with Microsoft and the risk to SoftBank’s $10B commitment illustrate how strategic partnerships and capital structure remain critical for the largest private AI players 12. Meanwhile, Meta ’s aggressive AI talent acquisition is tempered by early departures, suggesting that organizational stability and retention are still key execution risks in the sector 2.

Legal and regulatory headwinds are a growing concern for AI and digital assets. Anthropic’s copyright settlement removes a significant overhang, but similar litigation continues for other major players, and OpenAI’s wrongful-death lawsuit heightens scrutiny on AI safety protocols 615. These developments will likely raise diligence standards for investors and could impact deal terms, especially for companies with substantial exposure to data provenance or user-generated risk 6.

Private equity and biotech continue to face a challenging fundraising environment, with PE capital raising at a seven-year low and managers increasingly relying on take-private deals, as seen with Bain’s Canada Goose process 34. Biotech retrenchment—evidenced by Verily ’s cuts and declining Massachusetts VC flows—signals a tougher backdrop for early-stage and growth companies, with a premium on near-term commercial traction 7.

In fintech and digital assets, regulatory uncertainty is acute. The CFTC’s leadership vacuum and new surveillance tools come as Congress debates expanding the agency’s crypto remit, while the crypto sector faces significant fund outflows 101114. At the same time, Mastercard , Circle , and Google Cloud are pushing ahead with new stablecoin and blockchain settlement infrastructure, targeting institutional adoption despite market volatility 1213.

VCs should focus on secondary liquidity opportunities in AI, consolidation and take-private activity in mature sectors, and evolving regulatory risks in fintech and crypto. Execution, legal, and team risks are increasingly central to investment decisions as capital becomes more selective.

TL;DR

Nvidia earnings loom; Fed signals possible cuts; Kohl’s surges on earnings; oil and yields slide.

Highlights

• Nvidia to report Q2 earnings post-close; options market pricing in a ~$270B swing, with results expected to influence S&P 500 direction 57.
• Cambricon, a major Chinese AI chipmaker, posted a 4,348% YoY sales jump, underscoring global AI chip competition 7.
• Fed’s Williams signals rate cuts could be appropriate as US growth slows to 1–1.5%, but policy remains restrictive 2.
• US 2-year Treasury yield fell to 3.65%, lowest since May; curve steepened as traders anticipate Fed easing 3.
• French 30-year OAT yield hit a 14-year high, widening spreads over Bunds and signaling European fiscal concerns 11.
• FDA narrows Covid vaccine eligibility to high-risk groups, ending broad public access; vaccine makers’ shares initially rose, then retreated 1.
• Oil prices fell over 2% despite inventory draws, as Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent could drop to low $50s by 2026 12.
• Kohl’s shares surged up to 27% on strong earnings and improved 2025 margin outlook, triggering a short squeeze 13.
• PayPal shares fell ~2% after a €10B payment disruption at German banks due to a security glitch 8.
• CFTC deployed Nasdaq’s surveillance platform to monitor crypto and derivatives, anticipating broader oversight 10.
• Newmont considering thousands of layoffs to cut costs after Newcrest acquisition, despite strong gold prices and YTD share rally 19.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent ruled out a government equity stake in Nvidia and confirmed Fed chair interviews will start after Labor Day 64.

Commentary

US equity markets are largely in wait-and-see mode ahead of Nvidia ’s quarterly results, which are expected to set the tone for the S&P 500 and tech sector given Nvidia’s 8% index weighting and the options market’s implied $270B move 57. The report is particularly significant as Cambricon’s outsized growth in China highlights intensifying global competition in AI chips, a key driver of recent tech valuations 7.

On the macro front, Fed’s John Williams signaled that while policy remains restrictive, slowing US growth may open the door for rate cuts 2. This dovish tilt contributed to the US 2-year yield falling to a three-month low and a steeper yield curve, as traders increasingly price in Fed easing 3. However, persistent inflation expectations and tariff impacts keep the policy outlook data-dependent 2. In Europe, French OAT yields hit multi-year highs and spreads over Bunds widened further, reflecting fiscal concerns and adding to global rate volatility 11.

Commodities saw renewed pressure, with oil dropping over 2% after Goldman Sachs projected a long-term Brent surplus and lower prices, despite inventory draws 12. Gold remains elevated, but Newmont ’s cost-cutting plans following the Newcrest deal underscore margin challenges even in a strong price environment 19.

In corporate news, Kohl’s delivered a notable earnings beat and improved margin outlook, leading to a sharp short squeeze 13. Meanwhile, PayPal shares slipped after a major payment disruption in Germany, raising concerns about operational risk 8. Regulatory developments continue, with the CFTC rolling out Nasdaq’s surveillance tools to monitor crypto and derivatives markets, signaling a more robust compliance framework ahead 10.

Traders should closely monitor Nvidia ’s earnings and guidance for market direction, keep an eye on Treasury yield movements for rate expectations, and watch for volatility in heavily shorted or earnings-driven names.